Historical Data Signals Bitcoin’s Imminent 25% Plunge – Time To Buy Or Bail?

Samuel Edyme

1 year ago

3 mins read

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Historical data suggests that no Bitcoin cycle has peaked without experiencing significant double-digit corrections. These downturns, while daunting, have historically presented lucrative ‘buy-the-dip’ opportunities for investors.

As Bitcoin continues its ascent, with its price hovering above $62,000, the anticipation of a potential correction looms large, offering a window into the cyclical nature of cryptocurrency markets.

Market Maturity And Correction Patterns

Seasoned investor CryptoJelleNL recently shared a post on X earlier today pointing towards an imminent correction in the 20-25% range for Bitcoin.

Based on cycle analysis, this predicted dip indicates a potential drop to the $46,500 range, earmarking an opportunity for investors to bolster their positions in the leading crypto.

Corrections are an essential part of a #Bitcoin bull market — but with each passing cycle, the dips become shallower.

This cycle, it looks like ±20-25% will be the sweet spot for dip-buying.

Your job is to be ready to take advantage when it comes. pic.twitter.com/xrI7iKfiPR

— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) March 1, 2024

This perspective gains further credence when examining the diminishing severity of corrections as the market matures; the 2016-2017 Bitcoin cycle was characterized by seven substantial corrections, with an average pullback of 32%, significantly impacting investor sentiment and portfolio values.

In the subsequent cycle that propelled BTC to its current all-time high of $69,000, the market conditions were considerably more lenient for bullish investors: experiencing five downturns, the average decline was limited to 24%.

Fast forward to the present cycle, and the landscape appears somewhat different. With only four notable corrections recorded so far and an average pullback of 21%, Bitcoin should see a notable pullback, though not as harsh as previous ones. This indicates the market’s growing maturity.

Bitcoin Historical pullback shared by CryptoJelleNL

Additionally, this evolution suggests that while corrections remain a staple of the Bitcoin experience, their capacity to deter the asset’s long-term trajectory diminishes.

Navigating Bitcoin Upcoming Corrections

The potential correction for Bitcoin, as indicated by CryptoJelleNL is echoed by other market observers. Galaxy Digital Holdings CEO Michael Novogratz has also highlighted the possibility of a temporary dip, attributing it to factors such as excessive leverage among younger investors.

Despite these forecasts, Bitcoin’s current momentum remains strong, with recent price action showing a near 2% increase in the past 24 hours, underscoring the asset’s sturdy appeal.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView — BTC price is moving sideways on the 2-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com

In addition to speculative analysis, real-world examples of investor success stories provide tangible evidence of Bitcoin’s enduring allure. A notable instance is a smart whale who, per lookonchain analytics, invested $1.39 billion in Bitcoin in July 2022 at an average price of $21,629 per BTC.

With BTC price now surging past the $62,000 mark, this investor’s unrealized profit is a testament to the strategic potential of timely market entry and the value of patience in the face of volatility.

A smart whale has accumulated 22,670 $BTC($1.39B) at an average price of $21,629 since $BTC entered the bear market in July 2022.

He currently has an unrealized profit of more than $900M!https://t.co/gT1kfWq5YF pic.twitter.com/BTcijZB0IA

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) March 1, 2024

Featured image from Unpslah, Chart from TradingView

Samuel Edyme

Meet Samuel Edyme, Nickname - HIM-buktu. A web3 content writer, journalist, and aspiring trader, Edyme is as versatile as they come. With a knack for words and a nose for trends, he has penned pieces for numerous industry player, including AMBCrypto, Blockchain.News, and Blockchain Reporter, among others.

Edyme’s foray into the crypto universe is nothing short of cinematic. His journey began not with a triumphant investment, but with a scam. Yes, a Ponzi scheme that used crypto as payment roped him in. Rather than retreating, he emerged wiser and more determined, channeling his experience into over three years of insightful market analysis.

Before becoming the voice of reason in the crypto space, Edyme was the quintessential crypto degen. He aped into anything that promised a quick buck, anything ape-able, learning the ropes the hard way. These hands-on experience through major market events—like the Terra Luna crash, the wave of bankruptcies in crypto firms, the notorious FTX collapse, and even CZ’s arrest—has honed his keen sense of market dynamics.

When he isn’t crafting engaging crypto content, you’ll find Edyme backtesting charts, studying both forex and synthetic indices. His dedication to mastering the art of trading is as relentless as his pursuit of the next big story. Away from his screens, he can be found in the gym, airpods in, working out and listening to his favorite artist, NF. Or maybe he’s catching some Z’s or scrolling through Elon Musk’s very own X platform—(oops, another screen activity, my bad…)

Well, being an introvert, Edyme thrives in the digital realm, preferring online interaction over offline encounters—(don’t judge, that’s just how he is built). His determination is quite unwavering to be honest, and he embodies the philosophy of continuous improvement, or “kaizen,” striving to be 1% better every day. His mantras, “God knows best” and “Everything is still on track,” reflect his resilient outlook and how he lives his life.

In a nutshell, Samuel Edyme was born efficient, driven by ambition, and perhaps a touch fierce. He’s neither artistic nor unrealistic, and certainly not chauvinistic. Think of him as Bruce Willis in a train wreck—unflappable. Edyme is like trading in your car for a jet—bold. He’s the guy who’d ask his boss for a pay cut just to prove a point—(uhhh…). He is like watching your kid take his first steps. Imagine Bill Gates struggling with rent—okay, maybe that’s a stretch, but you get the idea, yeah. Unbelievable? Yes. Inconceivable? Perhaps.

Edyme sees himself as a fairly reasonable guy, albeit a bit stubborn. Normal to you is not to him. He is not the one to take the easy road, and why would he? That’s just not the way he roll. He has these favorite lyrics from NF’s “Clouds” that resonate deeply with him: “What you think's probably unfeasible, I've done already a hundredfold.”

PS—Edyme is HIM. HIM-buktu. Him-mulation. Him-Kardashian. Himon and Pumba. He even had his DNA tested, and guess what? He’s 100% Him-alayan. Screw it, he ate the opp.

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