Parabolic Bitcoin Price Structure In Danger: Cycle Climax Or Risky Reset?

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Last Updated: June 11, 2024 1:55 pm

3 mins read

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Bitcoin price is now below $50,000 for the first time in a month, and despite the still-high prices the market is in a panic. There’s now widespread fear that the current market cycle has peaked and things will soon fall back into a bear phase.

At the same time, there’s a looming bubble about to pop, aggressive tax measures and coming enforcement from the US government, and more that’s recently taken the legs out from beneath the bull run. Is this really the cycle climax, or just time for a long overdue reset?

Bitcoin Price Action Turns Deadly Fast, Bears Blindside Bulls

Rewind to only just a week or so ago, and full blown exuberance was in the air. Coinbase Global had gone public, listed on the Nasdaq for the first time and ushering in a “new paradigm” in crypto.

Things have certainly been going well for the asset class, garnering support from brands like PayPal, Venmo, and even Tesla. With corporations buying up what little BTC is left on exchanges – a number that has been rapidly decreasing – and expectations of more than $100,000 per coin, FOMO has been aggressive.

Dip buying at every drop has formed a parabolic price structure, that’s unfortunately at risk of breaking down.

A rare signal calls the top as price action falls to parabolic curve | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Crypto Cycle Climax Could Be Upon Us Unexpectedly

The chart above demonstrates just how risky the situation is right now for the leading cryptocurrency by market cap. Along with price action ready to smash through the parabolic curve just as bad news starts to come in, a rare cycle top based on Pi has appeared for only the fourth time in the asset’s young history.

The tool has called several important tops, including two out of three that led to extended bear markets in Bitcoin. When parabolic assets break down, data suggests that they retrace a full 80% of their gains. The last market cycle saw the cryptocurrency fall a full 84% before rebounding after this signal appeared.

Another 84% drop here would take Bitcoin back to around $10,000. A retracement of that magnitude, would be shocking to all and certainly not what projections suggest. A fall of that size would also suggest a bear market, sooner than most would have expected.

Could our friend Elliott Wave "hi" and save the day? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Another theory involves Elliott Wave and says that so long as the top cryptocurrency never makes it below the January 2019 top, the foundation of the bull market is still strong and should continue once the dust settles.

Volatility is coming, so don’t get caught up in the storm that could soon ensue.

Featured image from Pixabay, Chart from TradingView.com

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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