Fundamental Analyst: 90% of Smaller Crypto Projects Will Result in Complete Loss

Tony "The Bull" Severino

6 years ago

3 mins read

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As the crypto market begins to pick up steam once again, Bitcoin has stabilized and been on a slow and steady climb, and traders everywhere are rejoicing over the apparent alt season that is upon us.

However, before crypto investors begin to celebrate the beginnings of the next bull run, one fundamental-focused crypto analyst believes that the vast majority of cryptocurrencies in the market will result in “complete loss” for investors, who are essentially playing the role of venture capitalists by funding projects with little to no use case or real world traction.

Crypto Investing is No Get Rich Scheme, Assume 90% Failure Rate

A self-proclaimed fundamental analysis-oriented crypto trader has taken to Twitter to express his concerns in investing in smaller crypto projects, comparing crypto investors to venture capitalists who invest in startups with an impossibly high rate of failure.

https://twitter.com/cryptic_monk/status/1107608278677241857

The trader’s concerns are less about investing in cryptocurrencies, even the smaller projects he warns could result in “complete loss,” and more about the fact that uninformed cryptocurrency investors don’t appear to understand the risk to reward ratio in investing in cryptocurrency projects. He claims small crypto projects are unproven, often have tiny teams, and are more akin to startups.

https://twitter.com/cryptic_monk/status/1107608271161044992

“No matter how these small projects are financed (via an ICO, premine, fair launch, dev reward, self-funded etc.), they are essentially young startups in a completely unproven technological field. Such startups are known to have an extremely high failure rate of about 90%,” the analyst explained.

Any investment in projects of this scope should consider the funds to be venture capital. While this opens up a “highly specialized investment field previously only available to a closed group,” where investors have a shot at investing in the next Facebook, most “early stage startups fail” for a number of reasons.

Only Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Monero Have “Traction,” Should Make Up Core Crypto Exposure

With crypto assets being such a risky investment, why are so many confident in putting their capital into the emerging market class? While some of it may be due to general inexperience in retail investors that have flocked to crypto as an asset class, there’s no denying that “there’s a realistic chance that somewhere in the 10% of the projects that survive” lies a gem that ends up providing a 10x, 100x, or even 1000x return on investment.

https://twitter.com/cryptic_monk/status/1107608294527565824

But even less risky than “buying into that 90%/10% game” and hoping to find a moonshot, the analyst suggests that any crypto investor’s core exposure should be tied to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Monero, which he says has “real-world traction.”

Overall, his thoughts are in line with most of the crypto community, which recommend investing only what one can afford to lose, and to build their portfolio around high-cap coins such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

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Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.