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Amid the recent market volatility, Solana (SOL) has lost a crucial area for the first time in over a week, leading some analysts to forecast a potential drop toward the $200 support and below in the coming days.
Solana Pullback Eyes $200 Retest
Solana fell from the $225 area and recorded a 6.6% intraday retrace below the $210 level for the first time in two weeks. Notably, the cryptocurrency has been trading within the $210-$245 levels over the past month, briefly losing this range during the late September pullback.
As “Uptober” arrived and the overall crypto market recovered, the altcoin bounced from the recent lows, reclaiming the mid-zone of its local price range. Over the past week, SOL traded within the $220-$235 area, retesting both the upper and lower boundaries of this zone throughout this week’s volatile market performance.
Multiple market watchers warned that losing $215-$220 area could determine whether SOL’s short-term rally was at risk. On Friday morning, the altcoin lost this crucial zone, hitting a one-week low of $207.
Analyst Crypto Batman forecasted that Solana would likely head lower before bouncing, highlighting two key support areas. He suggested that the altcoin’ could retrace deeper into its Bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG), between $210-$220, which previously served as a key resistance level.
However, if the price continues to fall, he pointed out that a retest of SOL’s two-month ascending trendline, currently around the $200 mark, would be possible. This trendline was tested as support in late September, when the altcoin fell to the $190 level.
Similarly, Crypto analyst Man of Bitcoin had affirmed that holding the $216 level was crucial to preserve a bullish scenario in which the cryptocurrency rallied toward the $270 without major pullbacks.
The analyst cautioned that losing this area would invalidate the bullish setup and likely push the price down toward the local range lows, potentially risking a drop to the $200 barrier.
SOL’s Make-Or-Break Level
Meanwhile, market watcher Follis recently stated that SOL has “one of the cleanest” high timeframe charts in the market. He noted that Solana’s 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) indicator in the daily chart holds “the key.”
Notably, this indicator, currently sitting around the $200 area, has been tested as support and bounced from each time the cryptocurrency has failed to break a major resistance level since August.
Based on its recent performance, if the altcoin holding the EMA100 on the daily timeframe could see a rebound and target the range highs. On the contrary, if this level is lost, the cryptocurrency risks falling to the September lows.
Despite the short-term correction, some analysts remain optimistic about SOL’s end-of-year rally, suggesting that it will continue its path to new highs after the retrace. “$320 remains the target,” Trader Koala affirmed, “Pullback first though.”
As of this writing, Solana is trading at $205, a 12.1% decline in the weekly timeframe.
