The True Bitcoin Breakout Hasn't Even Happened Yet, Volatility Shows

The True Bitcoin Breakout Hasn’t Even Happened Yet, Volatility Shows

Nick Chong

1 year ago

2 mins read

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Bitcoin has undergone a massive rally over the past two weeks. From the lows set after the news broke regarding OKEx, the leading cryptocurrency has surged higher by almost 25%. As of this article’s writing, Bitcoin trades for $13,800.

Despite this rapid move to the upside, not all analysts are convinced that the true Bitcoin breakout has taken place. That’s to say, Bitcoin could soon see even more explosive movement.

Bitcoin Hasn’t Even Seen Its True Breakout Yet

A crypto-asset analyst shared the chart below on October 31st, sharing the sentiment that Bitcoin’s volatility is still barely off the lows. The chart below depicts BTC’s one-day historical volatility index since the start of the year. As can be seen, volatility is still far below the highs that were printed during March’s over 60% correction.

This analysis suggests that once Bitcoin breaks the trendline depicted in green, it will begin a move of macro importance. While current trends suggest that will be a move to the upside, BTC could reverse lower from here if another liquidity crisis were to transpire.

Chart of BTC's historical volatility index since the start of 2020 shared by crypto trader and chartist Big Chonis (@Bigchonis on Twitter).
Source: BTCUSD from TradingView.com

Bitazu Capital’s Mohit Sorout thinks that this volatility results in a strong move to the upside. He recently shared the chart below, showing how low Bitcoin’s macro volatility is right now compared to historical levels.

$BTC saw these prices in Dec 2017 then once in Jun 2019. We're here again today but volatility hasn't even started picking up.

Yes this time is different. pic.twitter.com/Oejq9NFEKJ

— MS📈 (@singhsoro) October 28, 2020

Price Discovery Above $20,000 May Happen

The actual breakout is expected to take Bitcoin above $20,000. Cryptocurrency analyst “Light” recently shared that the leading cryptocurrency could see “price discovery over $20,000” once retail investors re-enter the space.

“The retail segment is not overheated whatsoever currently. It will be soon though. Price is leading public interest. This is a telltale sign of smart money entering while retail has their heads buried in the sand. Once the latter catches up to the former, we’ll be in price discovery over $20,000.”

Tyler Winkelvoss and other investors in the space think Bitcoin will pass $20,000 by the end of 2020. The leading cryptocurrency is currently a 45% rally away from achieving that milestone.