Why a Top Analyst Thinks Bitcoin Price Could Fall By 20% Before Bottoming

Nick Chong

1 year ago

2 mins read

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On Monday, the Bitcoin (BTC) price started to falter. After trading above $7,000 for days on end — a consolidation that forced volatility levels to hit multi-month lows— the cryptocurrency slipped on Monday morning, falling from $7,100 to $6,800 in three five-minute candles, catching many traders with their proverbial pants down.

Despite the fact that the cryptocurrency remains above key supports in the $6,000 region — an area of utmost importance during the 2018 bear market, acting as a “make or break” level for Bitcoin — a top analyst claims that the pain is not over yet.

Bitcoin Still Has Potential to Drop 20%

According to a recent update from Jacob Canfield, a professional cryptocurrency trader, Bitcoin is not yet near a macro bottom in his eyes. He remarked that the cryptocurrency is likely to see a 20% drawdown from the current level of $6,900 to $5,500, for there is where the 0.786 Fibonacci Retracement of the rally from $3,100 to $14,000 lies.

https://twitter.com/JacobCanfield/status/1206796842144616449

Canfield’s analysis that a move to $5,500 could be had corroborates a similar thought from trader CryptoBirb, who noted that Bitcoin still is likely to see one final dump to $5,400-$5,600, which he also pointed out coincides with the 0.786 Fibonacci.

Birb added that this drawdown would validate a trend seen in previous market cycles, which saw BTC see a short-term bearish though macro bullish throwback to key support prior to a resumption of a parabolic uptrend.

There’s also Cold Blooded Shiller, a trader who recently suggested that the leading cryptocurrency’s chart suggests that a bottom is not yet in: “From a volume perspective, there is nothing to me that screams “THIS IS THE BOTTOM.” For both markdowns and markups we typically expect to see ‘climactic’ volume,” he wrote.

This is what I'd like (and expect to see):

Price coming out of the markdown channel (downside)
Large volume increase (creating an anomaly against prior volume)

That brings us on to the final piece of information we can use in this set up. pic.twitter.com/6zB4TWnzk0

— Cold Blooded Shiller (@ColdBloodShill) December 7, 2019

Is Macro Uptrend Still Intact?

While a move back to the $5,000s could be had, many researchers have asserted that the macro uptrend for the Bitcoin market remains intact.

Hans Hauge, a senior quantitative researcher at Los Angeles-based crypto fund Ikigai Asset Management, recently gave a confluence of reasons why he remains bullish on the leading cryptocurrency.

The Ikigai analyst first drew attention to a chart from Deutsche Bank, the 17th largest bank in the world. It was estimated that the number of users of Blockchain Wallet (blockchain.com) could surmount over 200 million — around six times higher than where the sum currently is — by 2030. Hauge also looked to the fact that the CEO of Bakkt has just become a U.S. Senator, meaning that Bitcoin could get its own cheerleader in Washington.

Nick Chong

I am a writer who has been following Bitcoin for years now. My insights and interviews have been featured in leading publications in the industry such as LongHash and Decrypt. I own a small amount of Bitcoin.