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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Whales Keep Buying Bitcoin, What They Might Know That You Don’t

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
1 year ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin bull case

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The Bitcoin price took a major hit yesterday despite a positive surprise in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), following a rumor that the US government sold 9,800 BTC related to Silk Road. Since then, the market has struggled to recover from the shock.

However, one group of investors is showing no fear: whales. The big investors with a lot of money are considered one of the most reliable indicators of when is a good time to buy Bitcoin. On-Chain analyst Axel Adler stated, “BTC Accumulation and Distribution – no changes. Large players continue to buy BTC from smaller players.”

The chart below shows that investors with more than 5,000 BTC have been buying large amounts (alongside smaller investors <10 BTC) over the last 30 and 90 days, while all other cohorts have been shedding BTC.

Bitcoin accumulation and distribution by cohorts
Bitcoin accumulation and distribution by cohorts | Source: Twitter @AxelAdlerJr

What Do Bitcoin Whales Know?

Of course, it can only be speculated what the Bitcoin whales know that others do not. But the fact is that Bitcoin saw an upward trend yesterday after the CPI release, until the fake news (manipulation?) about the US government selling Bitcoin broke.

But, yesterday’s CPI print could have significantly more implications than are apparent at first glance. For some time now, the market has been betting on an early pivot by the U.S. central bank (Fed). The market is currently betting on three interest rate cuts by the end of the year (3x 25 bps to 4.25-4.50%).

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Bitcoin Price Blasts Above $28,000 Following 4.9% April CPI Report

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While the U.S. banking crisis reinforces this bet, whales may have been calling the Fed’s bluff for some time. As NewsBTC editorial director and technical analyst Tony Spilotro recently pointed out via Twitter, the Fed (and the masses) are relying on lagging indicators.

Remember: CPI is a lagging indicator. The stock market is a leading indicator.

— Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT (@tonythebullBTC) May 10, 2023

Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at Creative Planning, stressed on Twitter that the consumer price index in the U.S. has declined from a high of 9.1% in June last year to 4.9% in April. According to the renowned analyst, the reason for this decrease is the lower inflation rates in heating oil, gasoline, used cars, gas supply, medical care, clothing, new cars, food at home and electricity.

YoY change inflation
YoY change inflation | Source. Twitter @charliebilello

Inflation rates in transportation, out-of-home food and lodging have increased since last June, but declines in the other major components have offset those increases. The fact that the U.S. core inflation index (excluding food/energy) still stands at 5.5% year-over-year is primarily due to shelter CPI (+8.1% year-over-year), according to Bilello:

Why was Shelter CPI still moving higher while actual rent inflation has been moving lower for some time? Shelter CPI is a lagging indicator that wildly understated true housing inflation in 2021 & first half of 2022.

As Biello added, after 25 consecutive increases (on an annual basis), the shelter CPI showed its first decline in April, from 8.2% in March (the highest level since 1982) to 8.1% in April. If shelter inflation finally peaks, it will have a big impact on the overall CPI, as shelter accounts for more than one-third of the index.

Deflation Coming Fast?

This opinion is echoed by Fundstrat’s head of research, Thomas Lee. In an interview, Lee said that inflation will come down faster than most people think and that will make the Fed’s pause more comfortable for investors because it will lead to a soft landing.

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For Lee, this is one of the key implications of yesterday’s April CPI report. Carl Quintanilla of Fundstrat added:

40% of the CPI basket (by weight) is in outright deflation. This is a huge development. Housing and Food are not ‘deflating’ even though real-time measures show this. That would add another 50% or so when they do.

For Bitcoin, a rapid drop in inflation rates and a soft landing as predicted by Lee could be extremely bullish. Whales could use this phase to accumulate while retail investors are selling out of fear of a looming recession with high inflation.

At press time, the Bitcoin price traded at 27,550, back in the lower range.

Bitcoin price
BTC price back in the lower range, 4-hour chart l Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com
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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

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His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

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