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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Why The Inventor Of Ethereum Attacked This Bitcoin Pricing Model

Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez
1 year ago
2 mins read
bitcoin losses

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The inventor of Ethereum Vitalik Buterin took aim at the controversial Bitcoin price model Stock-To-Flow (S2F). Buterin believes the model is “not looking good” and openly criticized it because it gives crypto investors a “false sense of certainty”.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Back At $21K After 75% Drop, Where Does It Go From Here?

This creates the illusion, according to Buterin, that Bitcoin will constantly trend to the upside. As the recent price action has proven, this could lead to many people losing their initial investment and more. Buterin said via his Twitter account while presenting the following chart:

I know it’s impolite to gloat and all that, but I think financial models that give people a false sense of certainty and predestination that number-will-go-up are harmful and deserve all the mockery they get.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD Ethereum
Stock to Flow model. Source: Vitalik Buterin on Twitter

Created by pseudonym analyst Plan B, as seen in the chart, this model predicted that BTC’s price was going to reach $100,000 by the end of 2021. The model deviated as Bitcoin trended to the downside later that year, and many consider it a failure.

Detractors, like Vitalik Buterin, believe the model fails to take other key variables into consideration and only projects BTC’s price to the upside for the coming future. For example, it failed to predict what would happen to Bitcoin under the current economic conditions, with a reduction in global liquidity and a U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) raising interest rates.

In response to Buterin’s comment, the inventor of the S2F Model, Plan B said:

After a crash some people are looking for scapegoats for their failed projects or wrong investment decisions. Not only newbies but also “leaders” fall victim to blaming others and playing the victim. Remember those who blame others and those who stand strong after a crash.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
BTC’s price tends to the downside on the 4-hour chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview

It Is Possible To Predict The Price Of Bitcoin?

Plan B has made changes to its S2F model and now refers to the 2019 original version and the new S2F version. As seen below, both versions predict a BTC’s price trending to the upside in 2022 and the foreseeable future.

If BTC stays on its current levels, around or below $20,000, in the coming months the analyst said the S2F model “will be less useful”. The other scenario is that BTC is “extremely undervalued and will bounce back soon”.

On the effectiveness of the S2F and any other model used to predict financial performance, Plan B said:

Prediction is hard, especially the future. EMH even says predicting financial markets is impossible.

Related Reading | Cardano Vasil Hard Fork Launch Date Set, Time To Buy The News?

Later, as the conversation around the S2F model got heated, Plan B added:

So I share my analysis and charts FOR FREE. Never told anybody to buy or what/when/how/howmuch to buy. Now covid, China ban, Russia war and inflation tank all assets including bitcoin … and somehow some weeners blame their investment decisions on me? Lame.

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Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez

Reynaldo Marquez

A literature major, Reynaldo Márquez has been deeply immersed in the crypto industry since 2017. His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide.
In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride.
He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times.
In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson’s ‘Neuromancer.’ The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau’s ‘Civil Disobedience.’
But that’s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term.
In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry.
Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. He hopes to retire with his wife, maybe in a quiet place near a beach, but most likely in a city close to a library and a university with his kids and, hopefully, grandkids.

Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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