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Breaking News: Bitcoin Hits ATH Of $112,000, Expert Predicts Rally Is Just Beginning
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Breaking News: Bitcoin Hits ATH Of $112,000, Expert Predicts Rally Is Just Beginning

Why This Crypto Bull Run Might Not Live Up To The Past: Analyst

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
1 year ago
3 mins read
Crypto bull run

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In a detailed analysis shared with his 788,000 followers on X (formerly Twitter), renowned analyst Pentoshi has forecasted a more restrained outlook for the current crypto bull run, suggesting that it may not mirror the explosive growth seen in previous cycles. His insights provide a deep dive into the underlying factors that could temper the market’s performance.

Why Crypto Investors Have To Expect Diminishing Returns

Pentoshi began his analysis by stating, “This cycle should have the largest diminishing returns of any cycle,” attributing this prediction to several key market conditions. Primarily, he noted that the base market capitalization for cryptocurrencies has increased significantly in each successive cycle, setting a higher starting point that makes further exponential growth increasingly challenging.

“Each cycle has set a floor about 10x the previous lows in terms of market cap,” Pentoshi explained. He provided a historical context, recounting that when he entered the crypto market in 2017, the market cap for altcoins was only around $12-15 billion, a figure that ballooned to over $1 trillion during peak periods. He argued, “That growth isn’t repeatable,” pointing out that the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector, which was then nascent, played a significant role in driving previous cycles’ exceptional returns.

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Another significant factor Pentoshi highlighted is the dramatic increase in the number of altcoins and the corresponding market dilution. “Today, however, there are a lot more alts, and a lot more dilution,” he remarked, indicating that the proliferation of new tokens spreads investment thinner across the market, reducing the potential for individual tokens to achieve substantial price increases.

Pentoshi also touched upon the demographic shifts in crypto ownership. He contrasted the early days of crypto adoption, when approximately 2% of Americans were involved in the market, to the present, where over 25% of Americans have some form of crypto investment. “It just requires more capital to move the markets, and there will continue to be a lot more alts, spreading it out further,” he noted, emphasizing the logistical and financial challenges of replicating past growth rates in a much more saturated market.

An often-overlooked aspect of market dynamics, according to Pentoshi, is the role of token liquidity and its impact on price stability. He detailed that recently, tokens amounting to about $250 million were unlocked daily, though not necessarily sold. “Assuming they all got sold, that is the inflows you’d need just to keep prices stable for 24 hours,” he explained, highlighting the delicate balance required to maintain current market levels, let alone drive prices upward.

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Looking forward, Pentoshi was conservative in his expectations for the Total3 index, which tracks the top 125 altcoins (excludes Bitcoin and Ethereum). He estimated, “My best guess is that this cycle we don’t see Total 3 go 2x past the 21′ cycle ATH. So 2.2T max for Total3.” This projection underscores his broader thesis that while the market continues to offer daily opportunities, the era of “easy, outsized gains” might be behind us.

Pentoshi concluded his analysis with advice for investors, suggesting a more cautious approach to market participation. “If you believe the cycle is 50% over, you should be taking out more than you are putting in and building up some cash and buying other assets with lower risk in the meantime,” he advised, stressing the importance of securing gains and diversifying holdings to mitigate risk.

Reflecting on the psychological aspects of investing, he added, “Most people never really learn. Because if you can’t control your greed, and defeat it, you are destined to give back your gains repeatedly.” His parting words were a reminder of the cyclical and often predatory nature of financial markets, urging investors to secure profits and protect themselves from foreseeable downturns.

At press time, TOTAL3 stood at $635.565 billion, which is still more than -43 % below the last cycle high.

crypto TOTAL3
TOTAL3 market cap, 1-week chart | Source: TOTAL3 on TradingView.com
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com
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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

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His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

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