Will Bitcoin Rebound? This Metric May Be The One To Watch

Keshav Verma

1 year ago

3 mins read

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The on-chain analytics firm Santiment suggests that this indicator may be the one to watch to get hints about when Bitcoin might rebound.

Large Stablecoin Holders Have Seen Stagnant Supply Recently

According to Santiment, the movements of the dolphins and sharks of the top stablecoins like Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) may be relevant for the price of Bitcoin.

Generally, investors make use of these fiat-tied tokens whenever they want to escape the volatility associated with other assets in the market, like BTC. Such investors, however, are likely to buy back into the volatile cryptocurrencies, as holders who are truly exiting the space do so through fiat.

When these investors feel that the prices are right to jump back into the other coins, they simply exchange their stablecoins for them. Naturally, this shift can act as buying pressure for the market they are moving into, and thus, provide a bullish boost to the asset’s price.

To check whether there is any significant conversion of stables happening into Bitcoin and others right now, Santiment has looked at the data for the supply of the relatively large stablecoin investor groups.

More specifically, the combined holdings of the dolphins and sharks are of interest here. These holders generally hold between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC on their balances.

Now, here is a chart that shows how the supply of these investor cohorts has changed for USDT and USDC over the last few months:

Looks like the two metrics haven't shown much movement in recent days | Source: Santiment on Twitter

As displayed in the above graph, the dolphins and sharks of the two largest stablecoins in the sector have seen their combined supply move mostly sideways during the last few weeks.

This means that these decently-sized investors haven’t been taking part in any sort of net conversions recently, whether it be swapping Bitcoin into stables, or exchanging their stables for other assets.

Interestingly, this sideways trend has continued during the last few days, despite the plunge to the low $29,000 levels that the cryptocurrency has observed in this period.

“Currently, one of our key considerations revolves around whether this behavioral pattern will continue in the incoming 24 hours, especially in the wake of today’s fallen prices,” explains the analytics firm. “Will these users perceive this change as an opportunity to ‘buy the dip’? Or will they opt to ‘abandon ship’ amidst growing market uncertainty?”

Naturally, if the supply of these large stablecoin holders starts to slip down in the near future, it can be a sign that these investors are buying Bitcoin while its price is at a discount.

Though, on the other hand, an increase instead would obviously be a worrying signal, as it may mean that the dolphins and sharks are starting to give up on BTC for now and exiting from it.

Bitcoin Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $29,200, down 3% in the last week.

The value of the asset seems to have been moving sideways since the plummet | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Featured image from iStock.com, charts from TradingView.com, Santiment.net

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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