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As XRP attempts to defend a crucial support level, an analyst has called for a 30%-40% rally in the coming weeks, suggesting that the altcoin could see short-term relief before it reaches its “critical inflection point.”
XRP Defends Its ‘Lifeline’
On Friday, XRP saw a 2.5% intraday retrace to retest the $1.43 area before bouncing above the crucial $1.40 level. The altcoin has been hovering between $1.34-$1.50 over the past month, recently attempting to break out of the range’s upper boundary.
During this week’s market rally, the cryptocurrency surged 15% from the weekend lows, reaching a one-month high of $1.60 on Tuesday. However, broader market volatility has pulled XRP back into its local range, leading the altcoin to retest a crucial area.
Analyst ChardNerd affirmed that the altcoin is “currently defending a lifeline as it clings to support” and that he expects continuation to what he believes will be its “critical inflection point” in the coming weeks.
XRP has been trading around its 200-Week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently at $1.41, with multiple closes below it and a bullish reclaim above this level in the latest weekly candle.
As he explained, this is the key guardrail that the cryptocurrency must defend as the end of the week approaches, as it would set the stage for a new retest and potential reclaim of its $1.50 resistance and a relief rally toward two crucial levels above, the 20 EMA and 50 EMA.
“So, what I’m trying to say is XRP could potentially have some sort of relief in the coming months, up towards these EMAs, which sit between $1.80 and $2.00. And if it gets this relief, that will mark a very critical inflection point.”
He further emphasized that XRP must defend and hold the 200 EMA, as it has reclaimed the critical support level in the weekly timeframe and pushed the price toward its recent local highs.
Why An April Rally Is Likely
Diving deeper into the potential upcoming relief rally, the analyst observed that in previous cycles, XRP also had a “very interestingly unfolding price action.”
He noted that after peaking in 2021, the altcoin fell to the 200 EMA, saw a relief rally toward the 20 and 50 EMA before being rejected and ultimately dropping to its bear market lows.
Now, the cryptocurrency has done “exactly what we did in the prior cycle peak in 2021,” significantly retracing from its July 2025 peak and falling back to the 200 EMA.
Notably, the altcoin saw around three months of relief after the successful back test, which could signal that “this is where we could see the next sort of few months, if Bitcoin behaves.”
Moreover, the previous relief rally took place around March 2022, ChardNerd asserted, noting that “It doesn’t have to repeat the exact same way.” If the March relief rally doesn’t retest the $1.80-$2.00 in the next week, the analyst suggested that “there is a possibility that it lasts a bit longer than it did the prior cycle” and continues into April or May.
“So, this is why there’s still the potential, I think, to get the push to $2 and then XRP comes back to $0.80 to $0.70,” he concluded.
