Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis for 03/22/2018 – Potential Triangle Formation

Bitcoin Price Key Highlights

  • Bitcoin price has formed lower highs and higher lows to create a symmetrical triangle on the 4-hour chart.
  • Price is bouncing off the support and might be due for a move back to resistance around $10,000-11,000.
  • A small rising trend line can be drawn to connect the latest lows, but technical indicators are giving bearish hints.

Bitcoin price is bouncing off its symmetrical triangle support and might be eyeing the resistance from here.

Technical Indicators Signals

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside. This means that the selloff is likely to resume than to reverse. Also, the 100 SMA is holding as dynamic resistance at the moment and could push bitcoin price back to the bottom of the triangle or lower.

A break below support could take bitcoin price down by the same height of the triangle, which spans $6,000 to nearly $13,000. Stochastic is indicating overbought conditions and appears to be starting its move south, so bitcoin price might follow suit.

RSI has some room to climb, so bitcoin bulls could stay in the game for a bit longer. However, this oscillator is also nearing overbought levels so the nearby areas of interest could hold as resistance, including the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point.

Market Factors

The dollar weakened on the FOMC statement even after the US central bank hiked rates. It turns out traders were disappointed over the lack of hawkish hints, particularly when it came to the dot plot of rate hike forecasts.

Fortunately, bitcoin price was able to take advantage of this, along with the pickup in risk appetite. So far, there are still no negative updates coming from the G20 Summit, putting investors at ease.

Remarks from Twitter CEO citing that bitcoin would be the world’s single currency also lifted bitcoin price. In an interview with The Times, Dorsey said:

“The world ultimately will have a single currency, the internet will have a single currency. I personally believe that it will be bitcoin.”

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Bitcoin Price Key Highlights

  • Bitcoin price appears to have broken past a complex inverse head and shoulders pattern.
  • This adds to the recent bullish signals being seen on the short-term time frames.
  • Price has also broken past the descending trend line and moving averages, which appear to be making a bullish crossover.

Bitcoin price is showing one short-term bullish signal after another, and this momentum could continue to build up as it breaks more upside barriers.

Technical Indicators Signals

The 100 SMA is still below the longer-term 200 SMA on the 1-hour time frame to signal that the path of least resistance is to the downside. However, the gap has narrowed significantly to signal a potential upward crossover and a reversal.

Note that bitcoin price has previously broken past a descending trend line and the moving averages’ dynamic inflection points. It has also moved past the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders formation, which is a classic reversal pattern.

The chart pattern spans $7200 to $9200, which suggests that the resulting uptrend could be of the same height. However, stochastic is heading south from overbought levels so bitcoin price might follow suit. RSI is also turning down from the overbought region to indicate a return in selling pressure.

In that case, bitcoin price might still have a quick pullback up its sleeve before gaining traction on the climb. Nearby support levels are located around $8500, $8000 and at the bottom of the downtrend around $7200. A move below these levels could indicate that the longer-term drop is resuming.

On the other hand, sustained bullish momentum could take bitcoin price up to the next major area of interest around $10,000. A move past this area could lead to a test of the key $12,000 level.

So far, there have been no negative reports from the G20 Summit when it comes to cryptocurrencies. World leaders have agreed to take a closer look at this industry but stopped short of making a strong push for tighter oversight.

Bitcoin Price Key Highlights

  • Bitcoin price is showing early bullish signals as it moved past a short-term descending trend line.
  • The uptrend could gain traction as bitcoin clears the next upside hurdles from here.
  • The areas of interest at $10,000 and $12,000 could contain some take-profit orders so bounces could be seen right there.

Bitcoin price is starting to get back on its feet but would need more bullish energy to bust through the next upside barriers.

Technical Indicators Signals

The 100 SMA is still below the longer-term 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the downside. This means that the selloff still has a pretty good chance of resuming, especially if bitcoin price falls back to the latest lows close to $7,000.

In addition, these moving averages line up with the nearby support turned resistance area around $9,000-10,000. If bulls aren’t strong enough to charge past this level, sellers could return and push bitcoin price back to the lows earlier this month.

Stochastic is also indicating overbought conditions, which means that buyers are tired. RSI has some room to climb so a test of the next roadblocks could take place, but this oscillator is also approaching overbought levels.

If buying momentum keeps up, bitcoin price could make its way up to the next area of interest at $12,000. A move past this area could confirm that the longer-term uptrend is still intact as it would place bitcoin back above the ascending trend line on the daily time frame.

Market Factors

Risk appetite appears to have picked up in the financial markets after the Brexit deal was announced. This would mean less uncertainty for businesses, at least during the transition period that would last for 21 months.

The FOMC decision is coming up and this could mean volatility for the dollar, including the BTC/USD pair. A rate hike is widely expected and this might weigh on sentiment, although the scenario has been priced in for quite some time and profit-taking is more likely.

The Bitcoin price is on everybody’s mind as of right now. With the current trend remaining bearish, the outlook is not all that positive. If Ronnie Moas is to be believed, however, things will turn out just fine. His $28,000 target by mid-2018 still holds up, by the look of things. A rather bullish sentiment in this sea of negativity.

Ronnie Moas Remains Bullish

Not too long ago, Ronnie Moas made an intriguing Bitcoin price prediction. In his opinion, the world’s biggest cryptocurrency will hit $28,000 in the near future. This may happen as soon as mid-2018, which is almost upon us. A lot will need to change before this situation will change for the better, though. Right now, things are not looking all that great whatsoever.

As one would expect, the Bitcoin price has stumbled throughout 2018. With the value dropped as low as nearly $7,000 last week a worrisome trend has emerged. The bears are bringing down the Bitcoin price like they do every single year. In most cases, the Bitcoin price will rebound in a strong fashion. Whether or not this will be the same in 2018, remains to be determined at this stage.

Ronnie Moas is not too concerned about what is happening right now. In fact, he considers the uptrend to emerge pretty soon. Technical analysts are putting up major sell signals, which seems destined to shake out the weak hands in the coming days and weeks. Most people who invest in Bitcoin don’t have the stomach for these volatile price swings, especially if things head south.

The Next Three Months may be Crucial

Even though most speculators don’t care about technical Bitcoin developments, they will impact the price pretty soon. With scaling becoming less of an issue, things are heading in the right direction.It is evident for everyone to see how the Bitcoin price is being manipulated. Ronnie Moas confirms as much, and he is seemingly enjoying the show.

In the Tweet above, it becomes evident he is effectively buying more Bitcoin at the current prices to keep stocking up. This seems to indicate a lot of money can be made with BTC in the coming weeks and months. Those looking for the “uber” gains, however, are holding Bitcoin long-term. The best is yet to come for Bitcoin, and Ronnie Moas is buckling up for the ride as we speak.

For now, the BTC price remains at a crucial pivot. If this current uptrend crumbles, hitting $7,000 is not out of the question. Assuming the uptrend is legitimate, things will only improve from here on out. It is a matter of time until the prediction by Ronnie Moas either comes true or goes up in flame. No one minds a BTC value of $28,000, especially not given the current price.

Bitcoin Price Key Highlights

  • Bitcoin price was previously trading below a descending trend line to indicate that a reversal is in order.
  • Price has also broken past the first dynamic inflection point at the 100 SMA and is closing in on the 200 SMA next.
  • A move past this level could draw more buyers in and allow the reversal to gain traction.

Bitcoin price has broken past a short-term trend resistance level to signal that buyers are trying to regain the upper hand.

Technical Indicators Signals

The 100 SMA is still below the longer-term 200 SMA to suggest that the path of least resistance might be to the downside. In other words, there’s still a chance for the selloff to reverse and for the breakout to be a fake one.

In that case, price could revisit the previous lows around $7200 or fall to new ones. Stochastic is indicating overbought conditions and looks ready to turn lower, likely indicating a pickup in bearish momentum as well. Similarly, RSI is in the overbought zone to show that buyers are already exhausted.

On the other hand, a sustained climb past the next dynamic inflection point at the 200 SMA or $8500 could lead to a move up to the next barrier at $10,000 then at $12,000.

Market Factors

The G20 Summit this week could make or break the bitcoin price rally as traders are waiting to hear how world leaders are planning on addressing issues surrounding cryptocurrencies. An approach that is more open to developments in the industry could sustain the climb while a push for stricter oversight could let the selloff resume.

Apart from that, the upcoming FOMC decision could also lead to big moves for the dollar. An interest rate hike is widely expected, so traders might simply tune in to the actual statement to look for any changes in rhetoric that could serve as clues for future policy action. A dovish hike could lead to dollar weakness that bitcoin price could take advantage of.

Things are evolving in an interesting direction where Bitcoin is concerned. Even though the price is declining rapidly, there are positive changes on the horizon.It is always important to put things into the right perspective.

An Intriguing Year for Bitcoin

It has been a  wild rollercoaster ride for Bitcoin, to say the very least. It is not the first time we see a total cryptocurrency market near or just below $300bn. Albeit the current trend isn’t exactly positive, there is no real reason for despair either. A lot of positive changes have occurred in the past twelve months, albeit most have gone by unnoticed.

More specifically, a year ago, we also had a market cap of $300bn, give or take. At that time, Bitcoin was in far worse shape than it is right now. With no scaling in sight, hardly any working projects, and no regulatory attempts, the future looked very uncertain. In fact, some people were quite certain the Bitcoin price wouldn’t evolve in a positive direction from that point onward.

The reality often works in different and mysterious ways. Bitcoin’s all-time high value is just over $19,000.We now also have a scaling solution in place, with more improvements on the way. We also have some positive regulatory measures in place as we speak. Bitcoin is legal and Japan, South Korea is fine with self-regulation by exchanges, and Europe will maintain a hands-off approach. All of these developments are positive, yet the price trend remains bearish.

Speculators Don’t Care About Technology

It is evident the people influencing the Bitcoin value don’t care about these developments. Cryptocurrencies have always been subject to price manipulation first and foremost. That trend will not slow down anytime soon either. Despite the overall market cap growth, this is still a pretty small industry. Even the Bitcoin futures will not necessarily impact this manipulative aspect in a positive manner either.

In fact, any positive technical developments may result in more bearish pressures. Any positive news gets the average person excited, which will trigger sell-off by Bitcoin “whales” accordingly. This doesn’t mean we will not see a new all-time high BTC price later this year, though. Anything and everything remains possible in the world of cryptocurrency.

With proper Bitcoin scaling and regulatory measures on the horizon, interesting things are bound to happen. Speculators can only keep the value down for so long until the floodgates open properly. More and more people are demanding exposure to this new form of money. With a limited supply of BTC to go around, the future still looks bright. Even though speculators only want quite profits, the long-term perspective still looks pretty solid, all things considered.

Key Points

  • Bitcoin price is under heavy selling pressure as it tumbled below the $8,000 support against the US Dollar.
  • There is a crucial contracting triangle forming with support at $7,400 on the 4-hours chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair may extend the current decline and it could even break the $7,400 and $7,000 support levels.

Bitcoin price is poised to extend declines below $7,000 against the US Dollar. BTC/USD’s correction towards the $8,000 and $8,500 levels are likely to be capped.

Bitcoin Price Bearish Trend

There was hardly any relief for bitcoin price as it failed to hold a major support at $8,400 against the US Dollar. The price declined and broke the $8,000 and $7,800 support levels. Earlier, there was a correction initiated from the $8,397 swing low. BTC price corrected and moved towards the $9,800 level where it faced sellers and started a fresh decline.

It fell and broke the last swing low of $8,397, opening the doors for more losses. It even traded below the 1.236 Fib extension of the last upside wave from the $8,397 low to $9,888 high. These all are bearish signs, which suggest further downsides in the near term. It seems like the price may test or it could even break the 1.618 Fib extension of the last upside wave from the $8,397 low to $9,888 high. There is also a crucial contracting triangle forming with support at $7,400 on the 4-hours chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Bitcoin Price Weekly Analysis BTC USD

Sellers could gain further control if there is a break below $7,400. The next major support is at $7,000. However, in the mentioned case, the price may extend declines and bitcoin could test $6,000. On the upside, the $8,000 level is a key resistance, followed by $8,400.

Looking at the technical indicators:              

4-hours MACD – The MACD for BTC/USD is moving in the bearish zone.

4-hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI is currently reaching the 30 level.

Major Support Level – $7,400

Major Resistance Level – $8,400


Charts courtesy –Trading View

Depending on whom you pose the question to, Bitcoin will either rebound or meet its demise. As of right now, some analysts are convinced the Bitcoin price will drop well below $5,000 pretty soon. If Market Securities Dubai’s Paul Day is to be believed, we will hit $2,800 in the not so distant future.

The Bitcoin Price Decline So Far

Anyone who has paid attention to Bitcoin this year may have noticed a peculiar trend. After hitting nearly $20,000 in late 2017, that same Bitcoin is now worth just over $8,200. Such a price trend is not uncommon in the world of cryptocurrency, though. The Bitcoin price goes through a bearish cycle virtually every year. Each time this happens, the value retraces from an all-time high by up to 90%. Right now, we are looking at a 53% decline with little improvement in sight.

Despite this negative trend, some speculators remain optimistic. John McAfee is a permabull when it comes to the Bitcoin price. His prediction of a value of $500,000 in the next two years still holds true to this date. Whether or not such a price goal is even remotely possible, is a different matter altogether. It will depend on merchant adoption, payment integrations, and new regulatory measures being deployed all over the world.

Speaking of regulation, things remain uncertain in this regard. South Korea still keeps an open mind, which is good to see. Additionally, we see India contemplating regulation of cryptocurrencies, yet no one knows how things will play out. In the US, cryptocurrency remains largely unregulated as well. The European Central Bank has no intention of intervening in this regard, which is rather interesting. A mixed bag of regulatory measures, as one would come to expect at this point.

The Bearish Bitcoin Price Outlook

Despite there being no real reason for it, the Bitcoin price is still struggling for traction. Bloomberg analysts are concerned this may only be the beginning “of the end”. More specifically, a prediction is made which puts the Bitcoin price at $2,800 in the very near future. This trend is known as a “death cross”, although it remains to be seen how things will play out.

According to the analysts, the chart trend paints a worrisome outlook. The “bubble” of 2017 has triggered a massive sell-off, although this trend could have materialized without such a big bull run last year as well. Market Securities Dubai’s Paul Day fears a  major Bitcoin price dip is looming just ahead. That is, assuming the current trends of 2018 will continue to repeat themselves in the coming weeks and months.

This prediction does not take any of the positive Bitcoin developments into account, though. A lot of things are happening behind the scenes. All of those developments can have a positive impact on the Bitcoin price in the long run. Charting and technical analysis are valuable tools, but they only tell part of the story. For now, we have to wait and see where the Bitcoin price will head during the remainder of 2018.

Bitcoin Price Key Highlights

  • Bitcoin has fallen through support at $8000 and could be due for more losses if this serves as resistance moving forward.
  • Applying the Fib retracement tool shows the nearby resistance levels that could keep gains in check.
  • Technical indicators are also reflecting increased bearish pressure.

Bitcoin price has fallen through the key $8000 level and is showing signs of a pullback to nearby correction levels.

Technical Indicators Signals

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside. The gap is still pretty narrow so an upward crossover is still a possibility, although the 100 SMA is also near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

This could act to the area of interest’s strength as resistance, likely pushing bitcoin price to fall back to the swing low at $7682.4. Stochastic is crossing higher without reaching oversold conditions, which suggests that buyers are trying to hop in.

RSI is on the move up but appears to be changing its mind halfway through, so sellers could be putting up a fight. A break below the swing low could confirm that a longer-term selloff is underway.

Market Factors

It looks like the odds are stacking up against bitcoin price these days, as the looming G20 Summit is leading investors to worry that global leaders would take a hardline stance against cryptocurrencies.

So far, the headlines haven’t been so positive, as regulators are stepping up efforts to crackdown on potentially illegal activity while there have been reports of security glitches. IMF head Lagarde has called upon encryption experts to help catch criminal activity involving digital currencies as well.

And to top it all off, Google’s announcement on banning cryptocurrency ads by June also took a huge toll on bitcoin price this week. This followed a similar announcement by Facebook back in January, which drove prices around 12% lower then.

Dollar demand is also supported owing to expectations of a FOMC interest rate hike for next week as data has been mostly upbeat.


Bitcoin Price Key Highlights

  • Bitcoin price continues to exhibit downside momentum as it tests the 38.2% Fibonacci extension level on the daily time frame.
  • Recall that price broke below a double top pattern to indicate that bearish pressure is picking up.
  • The Fib extension tool shows the next potential downside targets if this behavior keeps up.

Bitcoin price appears to be aiming for the next support levels on the daily time frame as shown by the Fibonacci extension tool.

Technical Indicators Signals

The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA on this time frame to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. This suggests that bullish momentum is still present and that the longer-term uptrend could still resume.

However, the 100 SMA has been holding as dynamic resistance recently and bitcoin price has broken below the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point to signal that it could also hold as a ceiling from here.

Stochastic is indicating oversold conditions, though, so sellers must be exhausted from the latest drop. RSI has some room to fall, so bitcoin price might follow suit.

At the moment, bitcoin price is finding support at the 38.2% extension near the $8000 marl. Stronger selling pressure could take it down to the 50% extension near the swing low at $6450 then further on to the 76.4% extension at $3610.4. The full extension is located at $1063.4.

Reports that Google will ban cryptocurrency ads weighed heavily on bitcoin price, as well as other altcoins, starting in June. Recall that Facebook previously took similar action, banning ads on binary options, initial coin offerings and cryptocurrencies back in January.

To top it off, the CFTC issued a subpoena to major cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex while the SEC announced an emergency asset freeze on an initial coin offering. Rumors are also swirling about potential bans in China, something that has already led to a sharp selloff in bitcoin in the past.