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Breaking News: LINK Price Climbs Following Chainlink's Deal With US Commerce Department, Eyes $30

Why UBS Analysts Expect a Strong Gold Reversal Despite Recent 7% Upsurge

Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino
5 years ago
3 mins read
gold price reversal recession interest rates

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Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
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Gold prices continue to soar as expectations of the worst recession the world has ever seen grow by the day due to the last impact the coronavirus will have on the economy.

However, UBS analysts are expecting a strong reversal in gold in the back half of 2020 as stimulus packages and policy changes from the Fed and the government begin to take shape.

Gold Prices Rise 7% in April Alone As Recession Looms On Horizon

Gold prices are up over 7% thus far in April, marking one the largest single-month rises in over the last year, and the month isn’t even halfway through yet.

And while the precious metal’s prices are expected to rise in the near term due to a combination of savvy investors moving capital into the safe-haven asset ahead of a looming recession and due to a currently restricted supply.

Related Reading | Author Rich Dad Recommends Gold, Bitcoin as Dollar is Dying 

The asset’s already scarce supply helps it grow in value while fiat currencies inflate with each new stimulus package put out by the government in an effort to prevent the economy from total collapse.

Gold has reached its highest price since the 2008 recession, however, UBS analysts are predicting a reversal in the second half of 2020.

“COVID-19’s deflationary effect has been a headwind for gold. But this trend should reverse in 2H20 as policy responses by governments and central banks gather traction, UBS analysts told CNBC.

gold price chart xauusd

UBS Analysts Expect Reversal In H2 2020 Due to Fed Interest Rate Cuts

The deflationary effect that UBS speaks of is the lowering cost of most physical goods due to less overall market demand, with so many people stuck in their homes quarantined.

The situation has caused oil prices to plummet with demand diminished, however, gold has fared extremely well in this environment. 

The limited supply gives the asset an edge in this type of economic climate.

However, as the recent efforts to stimulate the economy from the Fed begin to take hold in the second half of the year, UBS says that this will cause gold prices to reverse and begin to fall once again.

Related Reading | Gold Records Strongest Weekly Close Since Recession Recovery in 2013 

“Led by Fed easing, UBS says,” the firm expects “US interest rates to dip deeper into negative territory and perhaps even test the post-global financial crisis lows.”

Because gold is highly sensitive to interest rates, the impact could cause gold’s rally to fizzle out after nearly two solid years of growth. However, the precious metal could set a new all-time high before then, proving the asset’s value once again during a time of economic crisis.

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Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Read more

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

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