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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Bitcoin Approaches Top Of Accumulation Zone, Parabolic Phase Begins With Breakout

Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino
1 year ago
4 mins read
bitcoin raining coins

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Bitcoin every four years post-halving goes parabolic and rises to a new all-time high. The ebb and flow of these cycles each time attracts new money and participants to the cryptocurrency network and keeps adoption growing. Timing when to sell is the hardest part, but knowing when to buy BTC at the best possible prices before it goes parabolic, might be as easy as buying within a long-term “accumulation zone” that has supported each of the cryptocurrency’s past bottoms.

The leading cryptocurrency by market cap is now approaching the top of this zone, and beyond $20,000 the chance to buy cheap BTC will forever be gone. Here’s a look at the long-term significance of the “buy” band and some insight into if the cryptocurrency will break out into its full parabola now, or after perhaps one more crash.

Bitcoin Rises To Top Of Accumulation “Buy” Band, But Correction More Likely Than Breakout

Bitcoin price is currently trading just below $18,000 after rising from $3,800 earlier in the year. The leading cryptocurrency by market cap reached the low after kicking off the year with a bullish rally to $10,000, followed by the pandemic panic crash now known in hindsight as Black Thursday.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Experts Claim Post-Halving Performance Is More Bullish Than Pre-2017

And even though Bitcoin is now trading as so much higher of a price, the cryptocurrency is technically still in the same accumulation range, according to a long-term “buy” band that between two market cycles, represented the best opportunity to buy BTC before the asset goes parabolic.

bitcoin long term buy band

Bitcoin "buy" band and parabolic market cycles compared | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Once Bitcoin left the “buy” band pictured above in early 2017, it didn’t revisit the accumulation zone until the $20,000 record was reached. Comparing the four rejections from the top of the “buy” band in late 2015 and 2016 with the most recent cycle, could indicate that the current rally is taking place too soon, and a pullback to and of the lower segments of the “buy” band might follow.

Cryptocurrency Market Cycles Compared: When Will BTC Go Parabolic In 2021?

Bitcoin didn’t set a new all-time high with the third peak and “buy” band rejection, during the first rally of 2017. The vertical red line represents where the cryptocurrency is this time around during its market cycle, in accordance with its distance from the previous peak.

bitcoin buy zone 2017

There were four rejections before Bitcoin went parabolic in 2017 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Considering Bitcoin’s roughly every four-year pre-programmed block reward halving, each cycle should be somewhat predictable given the same dynamics and factors are at play.

That would suggest that the current price action is once again too overheated, much like it was in 2019, and at least one more correction is next.

As the market transitioned from bearish to bullish in late 2015 and early 2016 into 2017, four total rallies were rejected by the top band, before the asset went parabolic and returned to price discovery.

bitcoin buy zone 2020

Bitcoin could have one more crash before going full parabolic | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

A new accumulation phase began when the cryptocurrency fell to the middle line of the “buy” band at its bear market bottom.

The initial “echo fractal” of the crypto bubble, as it was called at the time, caused the cryptocurrency to run hotter than it should have thanks to the PlusToken Ponzi scheme that was prominent at the time.

A second phase of the bear market resulted. And while Bitcoin is certainly overheated once again, topping out here likely won’t lead to any dangerous downside or new lows.

Related Reading | Technical Expert Shows How Bitcoin Path Could Reach Gold’s $10 Trillion Cap

By all intents and purposes, Bitcoin has started a new bull market. According to the last cycle and the adherence to the “buy” band above, a correction is likely for the cryptocurrency to stay on a similar course as the last cycle.

If it continues to do so, two more decent-sized corrections could arrive between now and a new peak. But the band is certainly one to watch, as when Bitcoin does finally break free of it, the parabolic phase of the bull market will begin.

Featured image from Deposit Photos, Charts from TradingView.com
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Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

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Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

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