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Breaking News: Bitcoin Hits ATH Of $112,000, Expert Predicts Rally Is Just Beginning
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Breaking News: Bitcoin Hits ATH Of $112,000, Expert Predicts Rally Is Just Beginning

Christmas Day Derivatives Expiry Could Deliver The Gift Of Dangerous Bitcoin Volatility

Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino
1 year ago
3 mins read
bitcoin christmas

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Bitcoin price is still trading within striking distance of $20,000, however, momentum could be turning toward the downside after the critical resistance was unable to be broken again. Interestingly, the first-ever cryptocurrency has found itself at a similar price as 2017, and a similar point in December.

The last instance led to a substantial over 60% drop in just weeks, and extreme volatility kicked in around Christmastime. This Christmas, crypto Santa could be once again bringing the gift of wild Bitcoin volatility, and potentially, lower prices, thanks to the holiday coinciding with a massive derivatives contract expiry.

Remembering December 2017: Comparing Crypto Price Action And Sentiment Then Versus Now

Rewind to three years from this date. Bitcoin price had just touched $17,200, then suffered a sharp correction taking it back to $12,500. Finding support there, gave the cryptocurrency the momentum to reach its now-former all-time high of just under $20,000.

Three years have since passed, and after taking out $12,500, Bitcoin is back trading above $17,200 and was potentially stopped shy of $20,000 again. Both times market participants were clamoring for $100K BTC and higher.

bitcoin 2017 december price action

Looking back at the cryptocurrency's price action three years ago | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

And while the participants themselves this time are very different this time around, creating different dynamics that are undeniably more bullish for the cryptocurrency now, because it remains a speculative asset with unrivaled historical volatility, ruling out repeat scenarios where selloffs become frightening fast, is just plain foolish.

Related Reading | Bitcoin “Double Top” Narrative Builds, Factors To Potentially Fear

Resistance above $20,000 is strong, and the cryptocurrency hasn’t had a decent correction since its retest of $10,000. A full $10,000 trading range is now unaccounted for and untested as resistance turned support.

Of course, as past bull markets have shown, once the cryptocurrency revisits highs, it doesn’t often come back down for a breather. But something big and decisive is potentially brewing, and it could be coming on Christmas day.

QCP Analysis 9.12

1/ Going into this month/quarter/year-end expiry on 25 Dec we can expect to see some volatility, considering the magnitude of this quarter's rally as well as the expected record open interest for all derivative markets across the board in both options & futures pic.twitter.com/rRn5ztuRoz

— QCP (@QCPgroup) December 9, 2020

A Big Move In Bitcoin Could Be Coming This Christmas

As children across the globe wake up to check their stockings or look under the Christmas tree, Bitcoin investors could find themselves distracted due to shocking intraday volatility.

Derivatives contracts often expire at the close of each month on the final Friday. Quarterly and year-end closes are also of great importance. Due to the fact that the crypto market never sleeps, and the holiday just so happening to fall on a Friday this December, it coincides with an expiry of epic proportions.

Related Reading | “Cyclical Nature Of Bitcoin” Could Provide Clues On Continuation Or Correction

Derivatives contracts like futures and options have an expiration date, in crypto, the stock market, and elsewhere. When these contracts are up, buyers and sellers are out in droves resulting in surges in intraday volatility in the days leading up to, during, or post expiry.

With the Q4 rally so substantial in terms of ROI, the quarterly contracts are especially noteworthy.  Q4 2020 performed well but was an order of magnitude less profitable than Q4 2017 as the asset’s bull market ran dry.

bitcoin 2020 december price action

The same levels could once again play and important role in future price action | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Following the peak, the price of Bitcoin pulled back $9,000 in a single week, eventually falling from just under $20,000 to under $6,000 less than two full months later.

What will this Christmas bring to the cryptocurrency market?

Featured image from Deposit Photos, Charts from TradingView.com
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Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

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Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

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Ad discliamer

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