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Data Says Bitcoin Has Begun Its Most Bullish Month Historically

Tony "The Bull" by Tony "The Bull"
2 months ago
in BTC
Reading Time: 3 mins read

Bitcoin price is trading around $28,000, holding relatively stable after a large move upward in Q1 2023 from 2022 lows.

Not only is a new quarter beginning, but BTCUSD has entered its most bullish month in its history, according to data.

Historical April Bitcoin Performance Is No Joke

According to seasonal analysis and serial correlation, BTCUSD has typically been stronger in April than any other month out of the year. There is no telling why this phenomenon occurs, but should the trend continue, Bitcoin could be on its way to kicking off a more significant bull trend.

The below table highlights April performance each year, since BTC had a price to trade at. The data begins with April 2011, which saw more than 343% in growth in the nascent digital currency.

Year April Percentage Change
2011 +343.45%
2012 +1.37%
2013 +46.9%
2014 -2.56%
2015 -3.91%
2016 +7.87%
2017 +27.02%
2018 +33.24%
2019 +29.83%
2020 +34.3%
2021 -1.58%
2022 -17.41%

This represents a total April return of 537.94%, or an average of
44.83% upside in the month over the years. This even includes bear market data, such as the 17% decline in 2022.

Related Reading: Why Bitcoin Could Be Less Than 120 Days Away From Retesting ATHs

In finance, performance often recurs with unusually specific timing. The phenomenon called the January Effect, for example, sees a sharp increase in the valuations of small cap stocks and altcoins.

Bitcoin has also historically topped in November or December, so why couldn’t major bull movements happen in April? Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, but history does often rhyme.

BLX_2023-04-03_19-33-06

BTC in April over the years | BTCUSD on TradingView.com

BTCUSD Analysis: April Showers May Bring A 44% Price Increase

A 44% move in BTCUSD would take the top cryptocurrency above $40,000 for the first time since –– interestingly enough –– last April 2022. That month the cryptocurrency market fell be 17%, breaking below descending support.

The breakdown below the support trend line resulting in a dramatic fall further, to the tune of an additional 46% in the two months to follow. BTCUSD dropped a full 58% from the April 2022 close until the current bottom set in November.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Structure Points To New Uptrend, Here’s Why

Since November, Bitcoin has risen by nearly 80%, and another 44% on top of that would mean BTC doubled in value from the bottom in November, to the end of this month. But only if BTCUSD adds that average to the current price.

Will April fool the market with its bullish data and pull the rug? Or will the recurrence have enough credence to result in a massive rally?

Deja vu in #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/nBCzxSud7k

— Tony "The Bull" (@tonythebullBTC) April 3, 2023

Follow @TonyTheBullBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice. Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com
Tags: bitcoinbtcbtcusdBTCUSDTcryptoxbtxbtusd
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Tony "The Bull"

Tony "The Bull"

Tony is the “always-on” Editorial Director and Head of Research at NewsBTC, leading a talented team of writers and editors across several different global time zones. Tony is also the founder of CoinChartist.io – an educational website focused on crypto trading. Partners include Elliott Wave International, TradingView, and more. Tony’s background includes an extensive, award-winning media production career and over fifteen years of publishing operations and management. In the past, Tony has founded several media websites and his content has been read billions of times. Past clients include the BBC, Fidelity, and many others. Tony "The Bull" is a level 3 CMT student (passed level 1 & 2), technical analyst, Bitcoin supporter, and avid speculator. He owns a python named Satoshi. Tony longs for the day when money is separated from the state. Tony is deeply fascinated by core market principles such as Elliott Wave Theory as they tie into mathematics like Fibonacci ratios. Market timing though DeMark indicators, Ichimoku, Gann tools, or Hurst Cycle Theory are also of key interest. Tony provides completely original content driven by exclusive, independent research. For more insights and education from Tony, check out his free TonyTradesBTC Telegram channel. Follow @TonyTheBullBTC on Twitter. You can also follow @CoinChartist_io on Twitter and subscribe on YouTube.

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