The Hidden Bitcoin Trend Line That Could Save The Bull Run

Tony "The Bull" Severino

1 year ago

3 mins read

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Today, Bitcoin price sank below $40,000 for the first time since September – a price more than 50% lower than what the market was anticipating this time of year.

While the downside has been impossible to ignore, the latest sweep of lows has resulted in a touch of a trend line dating back to the bear market bottom that could keep the bull market intact a bit longer.

Technical Analysis And Framing The Importance Of Trend Lines

When it comes to technical analysis in Bitcoin, trend lines always matter. When such lines hold, it is a sign to the market that it is time to reverse. When they give way, the resulting breakdown and panic is usually dramatic.

For example, losing the horizontal support line of $6,000 in late 2018 immediately resulted in a plunge to $3,000. Once there, the bear market bottom was put in.

It was beginning at that initial bounce that restored hope in Bitcoin, that yet another trend line started. Rather than a trend line drawn across price peaks or troughs, this trend line is drawn across extreme oversold readings on the daily Relative Strength Index.

A long-term RSI trend line could cause a bounce | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Now Or Never: Bitcoin Bull Run RSI Trend Line Must Hold

As Bitcoin price swept below $40,000 on BTCUSD daily charts, the Relative Strength Index tapped a long-term trend line. The line itself has withstood the bear market bottom, Black Thursday, and the 2021 selloff down to $28K.

Does this latest move down have enough momentum to break through the support line? Or will it hold once again? The reading alone on the RSI suggests conditions are highly oversold – the fourth most extreme since the bear market bottom.

Fourth time is the charm? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

During the last bull market, there were four total touches of the daily RSI trend line. The fourth was the final touch before the peak of the bull market (green dotted line).

The same trend line, once breached, is what led to Bitcoin falling sharply from $20K to under $6,000 in less than one month in early 2018 and kicked off the bear market (red dotted line).

Bitcoin is once again at the trend line. Will the fourth tap prepare the market for liftoff, or will the line break down and a new bear phase begin? It could be now or never for Bitcoin bulls.

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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