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Bitcoin gradual recovery continues, with the asset currently trading at $95,409 after posting a 1.7% gain over the past 24 hours. In the last two weeks, BTC has climbed nearly 15%, recovering steadily from its recent period of correction.
While the momentum appears measured compared to past breakouts, the underlying market data suggests that structural shifts are underway that could influence the next major move.
So far, several indicators are pointing toward improving sentiment, particularly within the derivatives market, which now dominates Bitcoin’s overall trading volume.
Recent observations from analysts highlight a shift in the balance of trading activity, hinting that long positions are regaining strength over shorts. Meanwhile, updated cycle models suggest Bitcoin may still have room to extend its current trend, with structural similarities emerging between the present market and the 2017 cycle.
Bitcoin Net Taker Volume Turns Positive, What Does It Signal?
According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, the 30-day moving average of Bitcoin’s Net Taker Volume has returned firmly to positive territory.
Net Taker Volume is an indicator that compares the relative size of long and short positions in the derivatives market over a given period. A positive reading indicates that buying pressure (long positions) outweighs selling pressure (short positions), while a negative reading suggests the opposite.
Darkfost noted that derivatives markets now account for roughly 90% of total Bitcoin trading volume, surpassing spot and exchange-traded (ETF) volumes. As a result, shifts in derivatives sentiment can often foreshadow broader price movements.
The return of the Net Taker Volume into positive territory suggests that speculative participants are positioning for continued upside. This realignment in the derivatives market, if sustained, could act as a catalyst to reinforce Bitcoin’s recent gains and set the stage for further price discovery.
Cycle Model Adjustments Point to Uptrend Continuation
In a separate analysis, CryptoQuant analyst Mignolet provided insight into Bitcoin’s longer-term trend outlook. Using a refined cycle model based on market capitalization data, Mignolet suggested that traditional cycle indicators have been slow to reflect the latest recovery.
To address this lag, adjustments were made to the model’s time series to detect earlier shifts in market behavior. Mignolet observed that what appeared to be a “bear market” zone under traditional models was, in reality, a buying opportunity within an ongoing upward cycle.
The current market structure, according to Mignolet, resembles the later stages of the 2017 bull market rather than the early phases of a new downturn. If this parallel holds, Bitcoin could still have significant upside potential before entering a major correction phase.
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
