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Breaking News: Will Bitcoin Fill The $82K CME Gap? $10B Could Be Liquidated—But Bulls May Hate What Follows
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Breaking News: Will Bitcoin Fill The $82K CME Gap? $10B Could Be Liquidated—But Bulls May Hate What Follows

Bitcoin Recovery Still Looks Like A Bear Market Rally, Analyst Says

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
Last Updated: April 21, 2026 4:00 am
2 mins read
Bitcoin

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A CryptoQuant analyst has explained how the recent Bitcoin recovery has still looked like a bear market rally based on signals in on-chain metrics.

Bitcoin Recovery Has Come Alongside A Rise In The LTH Supply

In a new thread on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has discussed the recent recovery run that Bitcoin has witnessed. This surge has arrived after BTC stabilized into a consolidation range following its low at the start of February.

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Bitcoin Recovery Still Looks Like A Bear Market Rally, Analyst Says

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On-chain data suggests that this bottoming process started alongside an uptick in the supply of the long-term holders (LTHs). The LTHs are defined as investors who have been holding onto their tokens since more than 155 days ago.

As the below chart shows, the 30-day change in the supply of this Bitcoin cohort was negative between mid-2025 and January 2026, indicating that the diamond hands of the network were distributing their coins.

Bitcoin LTH Supply Change
Looks like the LTH supply has been going up in recent weeks | Source: @JA_Maartun on X

Since the end of January, however, the metric has flipped negative, a sign that coins have been becoming a part of the LTH supply. Note that this metric has a 155-day delay attached between when buying occurred and when it reflects on the data since coins first have to be held for 155 days before they can be classified into the group. As such, the green netflow doesn’t imply accumulation that’s occurring in the present.

What it does suggest, however, is that the market has seen the rise of HODLing conviction as BTC has settled into the consolidation phase. In the last month, 345,000 BTC has matured into the group. “That’s structural strength building under the surface,” noted Maartunn.

While the latest price recovery has come alongside a surge in the Bitcoin LTH supply, it has also been met with selling pressure. The short-term holders (STHs), investors with a holding time of 155 days or lower, sent about 60,000 BTC to exchanges.

Bitcoin STH Exchange Inflows
The data for the exchange inflows related to the STHs | Source: @JA_Maartun on X

Another metric shows that STHs have been transferring their Bitcoin at a loss recently, suggesting that they have still been exiting at a loss despite the recovery surge. Distribution has not just come from the STHs, but also the large entities holding more than 100 BTC in their wallets, who have seen their exchange inflows pick up.

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Bitcoin Recovery Still Looks Like A Bear Market Rally, Analyst Says

5 days ago

The selling pressure from these groups could be why the Bitcoin rally hasn’t been able to push higher despite the trend in the LTH supply and the accumulation from Strategy. “For now, this still looks like a bear market rally…” said Maartunn. “But a strong breakout could quickly shift the trend.”

BTC Price

Bitcoin surged above $78,000 last week, but the asset has since seen a setback as its price has dropped to $75,300.

Bitcoin Price Chart
The trend in the price of the coin over the last five days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

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