Analyst: Bitcoin Currently Severely Overvalued, Not Yet Ready For Moon

Tony "The Bull" Severino

5 years ago

3 mins read

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In less than two months’ time, Bitcoin price has gone from a low of $6,400 to well over $10,000 at the recent high.

The sudden surge in Bitcoin price has caused the first-ever cryptocurrency to outpace its fair market valuation, suggesting that a correction may be necessary to keep prices at bay a little while longer before a full bull market breakout occurs.

Bitcoin Not Yet Ready for Moon, Says Crypto Analyst

Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market have had an incredibly bullish beginning to the new year.

The leading crypto asset by market cap itself is well up over 40% year-to-date, and many top-performing altcoins such as Ethereum and Tezos have risen by well over 100%, doubling in value.

But as cryptocurrency valuations once again soar, they’ve already reached a level that is beyond their fair market prices, according to one cryptocurrency analyst.

In the trader’s detailed, long-term analysis of the Bitcoin market over the last decade, a comparison between the previous bear into bull market transition is made against the current market cycle.

According to the historical data, the last cycle from 2014 through 2017 consolidated for roughly 1,246 days before breaking above its former all-time high.

The analyst expects Bitcoin to take just 1,120 days this time around, but the asset is currently overheated in terms of price.

#Bitcoin fair value analysis

We are not ready for moon, yet pic.twitter.com/Ei90nz0hrh

— //Bitcoin 𝕵ack 🐐 (@BTC_JackSparrow) February 17, 2020

BTC Severely Overvalued According to Bear and Bull Cycle Length

However, during the current cycle, Bitcoin has risen above the 0.5 Fibonacci level on more than one occasion. In the last cycle, Bitcoin spent much of the bear cycle below this level.

The analyst believes that this suggests that Bitcoin price is beyond its fair market valuation, and spending more time below the 0.5 Fibonacci level would be “healthy” for future growth across the crypto market.

The trader’s chart also reveals the analyst’s expectations of a retest of the asset’s former all-time high at $20,000 toward the back end of 2020.

In the past, Bitcoin has topped out in December 2017, then bottomed in December 2018. In 2019, Bitcoin found yet another bottom to its shorter, six-month downtrend in December, and the analysis would point to a retest of all-time high this coming December.

By the time December 2021 rolls around, the next significant achievement in Bitcoin could be a new all-time high and new bull market peak. But it’s all predicated on Bitcoin breaking above the former all-time high this year, or in early 2021.

Once the former all-time high is breached, extreme FOMO is expected that could cause Bitcoin to go parabolic once again, and reach valuations of $100,000 or higher as many are predicting the price per BTC to eventually achieve.

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Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.