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Breaking News: Bitcoin Hits ATH Of $112,000, Expert Predicts Rally Is Just Beginning
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Breaking News: Bitcoin Hits ATH Of $112,000, Expert Predicts Rally Is Just Beginning

Why Bitcoin Bears Might Not Get To Buy New Lows

Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino
1 year ago
4 mins read
bitcoin bull bear Elliott wave

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Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
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The crypto community is locked in debate over: Is Bitcoin in a bull or bear market? The debate will rage on until either a new high or new low is made.

The current price action is bearish, which gives the impression that sellers are in charge. The news cycle, and sentiment doesn’t help the picture for bulls. But there is one “theory” that suggests a lower low won’t be made.

Mapping Out From The Bear Market Bottom To The Bull Cycle Top

Recently, Elliott Wave International held an Open House on their Crypto Pro Group led by analyst Tony Carrion. Tony nailed the recent 20% crypto market plunge as part of a C-wave and a short-term call.

A longer term play looks ahead toward a positive Q4, where the analyst expects a wave five to develop and “greater price appreciation to occur.” If it fails to do so, then the pattern might not be valid.

Related Reading | Build Base Or Bust? Bitcoin Touches Down On Parabolic Support

The recent accurate call of a C-wave prompted a deeper analysis of the longer term play. According to Elliott Wave Theory a primary motive wave consists of five waves, with odd-numbered impulse waves following the primary trend. This is Bitcoin we’re talking about, so the primary trend has almost always been up.

A new motive wave and series of impulse waves began at a bear market bottom. Waves two and four are also bearish consolidation phases that move counter to the trend. Tony’s idea is that the run up in early 2019 was wave one, wave two ended with Black Thursday (take note of this), and wave three ended at $65,000 in April.

Wave four should move sideways, while wave two was sharp | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

Why Bitcoin Bears May Salivate Over New Lows Forever

What isn’t yet clear, is when wave four ends, and wave five begins. However, when reviewing some facts regarding Elliott Wave rules and guidelines, along with several important factors related to the current market cycle, things begin to fit the mold.

The best argument bears have for more downside in Bitcoin, is a crash back to $20,000 and a lower low scenario – because that’s what happened after the 2019 peak to Black Thursday. However, Elliott Wave rules state that wave two and four will alternate in severity.

Out of wave two and wave four, one correction will be sharp, the other sideways. Looking at the top and bottom of the last correction, sharp is an understatement, especially compared to the most recent “top.”

Each impulse wave also behaves similar with five smaller sub-waves | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

If wave two was sharp, then wave four will be sideways, according to the alternation in an impulse rule.

“It primarily instructs the analyst not to assume, as most people tend to do, that because the last market cycle behaved in a certain manner, this one is sure to be the same.”

Related Reading | Astro Crypto: Summer Bitcoin Slump Could Bring Bountiful Fall Harvest

Also as part of the alternation rule, wave one, three, and five will alternate to a certain degree. Elliott Wave theory says that wave one and five will made in both time and magnitude, especially have wave three was an extended wave. When comparing what would be wave one with wave three, it is easy to see how extended wave three would have been.

All of this information suggests that there won’t be a lower low, and wave five should rally around 350% from where wave four ends.

This is all great news for bulls who were hoping for $100,000 Bitcoin. The only problem? When it is all over, if the pattern is accurate, the worst bear market ever is coming next.

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or via the TonyTradesBTC Telegram. Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com
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Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Read more

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

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