Bitcoin Testing Weekly Moving Average That Sparked Last Crypto Bull Market

Tony "The Bull" Severino

5 years ago

3 mins read

Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed

The highest standards in reporting and publishing

How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

Now that Bitcoin has broken down from the triangle formation it was trading in, putting an end to months of consolidation, crypto analysts are sifting through Bitcoin price charts hoping to find clues as to what might happen next.

One crypto analyst may have found some evidence that Bitcoin’s bull run isn’t actually over, and is simply resting an important long-term moving average that following the last bear market, once it was retested, the true bull market began that resulted with Bitcoin reaching $20,000 per BTC.

100-Week Moving Average Retest Ignited Bitcoin Bull Run

At the end of 2015 – just as the 2014-2015 bear market came to a close, Bitcoin broke up above the 100-week moving average, later retesting it as support in early 2016, before going full parabolic and setting a new all-time high at $20,000.

When Bitcoin broke down from $6,000 to its bear market low last November, the leading crypto asset by market cap fell below the 100-week moving average for the first time since 2016.

In April 2019, Bitcoin once again broke back above the 100-week moving average it had finally fallen below in November. Now, after the triangle breakdown, Bitcoin is once again retesting the 100-week moving average as support, and if history repeats – and if often does – Bitcoin could once again be supported by the moving average, and the next true bull run may begin soon after.

Yes, No, Maybe So? pic.twitter.com/1eR74bfdfg

— Nunya Bizniz (@Pladizow) October 17, 2019

Will History Repeat Itself, Or Will Another Moving Average Fall to Crypto Bears?

According to a chart shared by a prominent crypto analyst, it demonstrates how the 100-week moving average acted as resistance turned support in early 2016, ultimately leading to the crypto bubble that put Bitcoin on the map and made it a household name.

A closer look at the weekly chart shows that Bitcoin had two weekly candles bounce off the moving average, giving bulls a glimmer of hope that the bull market isn’t over before it really got started.

Bears, however, can take solace in the fact that other crypto analysts had repeatedly cited other moving averages, such as the 200-day moving average, acting as support throughout the last bull market. Bitcoin has now closed many consecutive candles under the 200-day moving average and was unable to reclaim it as support even after several attempts.

Technical analysts often look for theories and stick with them until they are invalidated. The idea that the 100-week moving average could act as support is currently still valid, however, a break below $7,700 on the weekly and a full candle close below it, the theory can go out the window along with the 200-day moving average propping Bitcoin up enough for a new bull run.

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.