70% Of Bitcoin Supply Is In Profit – Why Bulls Need To Defend This Level

Keshav Verma

1 year ago

3 mins read

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On-chain data shows about 70% of the total Bitcoin supply is currently in profit, a level that has historically been important for bulls.

Around 30% Of Total Bitcoin Supply Is Now Underwater

As per the latest weekly report from Glassnode, the percentage of BTC supply in profit has now fallen off to just 70%.

The “percent of supply in profit” is an indicator that measures the percentage of the total Bitcoin supply that’s currently in the green.

When the value of this metric increases, it means more coins have started to get into profit. This leads to holders becoming more probable to sell their coins in order to harvest their gains.

At very high values of the indicator (more than 95%), the price of Bitcoin has usually approached a top as profits are realized.

On the other hand, when the metric moves down, it means more coins are entering into the red. Below certain low levels, investors may capitulate to cut their losses. However, when more than 50% of the supply is underwater, bottoms have historically formed.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the value of the Bitcoin supply in profit over the last couple of years:

Looks like the value of the indicator has declined recently | Source: The Glassnode Week Onchain - Week 3, 2022

As you can see in the above graph, the metric has been falling down since a few months now. And so at the moment, only around 70% of the Bitcoin supply is in profit.

The 70% level seems to have been significant historically as bulls had to defend it twice in the past two years. The first instance was shortly after the COVID crash, between May 2020 to July 2020.

The other instance was 2021’s mini-bear period between May and July. The bulls came out on top during both the periods after a while of sideways movement.

The report notes that the medium-term outlook of the price likely depends on how the market responds to the level this time. If more of the supply enters underwater, those in the red may finally capitulate.

On the other hand, a bullish reversal can bring more Bitcoin into profit and prevent these holders from selling here.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $42k, up 0.5% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 8% in value.

The below chart shows the trend in the price of BTC over the last five days.

BTC's price has once again stumbled down in the past few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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