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Breaking News: Bitcoin Hits ATH Of $112,000, Expert Predicts Rally Is Just Beginning
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Breaking News: Bitcoin Hits ATH Of $112,000, Expert Predicts Rally Is Just Beginning

Bitcoin Bottom Or More Pain? Here’s What BitMEX Founder Arthur Hayes Thinks

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
1 year ago
3 mins read
BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes Bitcoin

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Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of crypto derivatives platform BitMEX and Bitcoin pioneer, has spoken out about the current state of the market in an interview with Scott Melker.

Despite the threat of a looming recession in the U.S., Hayes believes Bitcoin is in a bottom phase. According to him, the origin of the boom-and-bust cycle is the rampant monetary policy.

“If we take a step back and look at why BTC went up so high because [… ] the biggest economy in the world printed the most money they’ve ever done. Obviously a lot of money flowed into crypto,” the BitMEX founder said.

The excess needs to be reversed now. Notably, it also contributed to the “behavior of Sam Bankman-Fried, FTX, Kyle, Zhu and all of the centralized money platforms. All bankrupt and insolvent.”

Bitcoin Bottom Is In

Looking forward, this is the key bottom indicator for Hayes as “pretty much everyone who could go bankrupt has gone bankrupt”.

Remarkably, the collapsed entities sold Bitcoin and Ethereum first, indicating the health of the market. By contrast, “dog and shitcoins” are still left on their balance sheets because they are super illiquid, Hayes noted.

He added, “if you look at Alameda’s balance sheet, there’s no BTC on there. They sold Bitcoin as they were going bankrupt. The shitcoins are left.”

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That’s another reason why BTC will be ringing the bell for the end of the bear market, while some altcoins will remain depressed, Hayes asserted:

[Bitcoin is] the most pristine and most liquid asset, and that’s why it will lead us off the bottom too. And obviously the shitcoins will follow. But there’s a lot of bags held by bankrupt companies who need to liquidate them.

But at least for Bitcoin, I am very confident that the largest, most irresponsible entities have sold all the Bitcoins to diamond hands.

In the addendum, the BitMEX founder went on to say that he can’t prove that all the BTC held by these failed entities were sold during the crashes, but it looks like it.

In his recent blog post, Hayes added that he currently sees no reason why people should not hold Bitcoin unless they have a “pressing need for fiat money.”

The Real Test For BTC Will Come In 2024/2025

Looking further into the future, the BitMEX founder believes BTC will bounce back next year as the U.S. treasury and bond market will become dysfunctional sometime in 2023 due to the Fed’s tighter monetary policy.

At that point, Hayes expects the Fed to fire up the money printer. Then, Bitcoin and all other risk assets will skyrocket. However, Bitcoin will serve as an indicator and will decouple from the S&P500 beforehand.

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Moreover, the BitMEX founder does not expect the true test for Bitcoin, a recession, until 2024 or 2025 when he forecasts a “generational collapse” to happen.

“Hopefully it’s better than the 1930s, but depression-like. And then the question is, can Bitcoin outperform the 10-year treasuries and really high inflation?”, Hayes said.

Until then, the dollar and BTC markets will be correlated. Whether Bitcoin is truly an inflation hedge and will show any usefulness remains to be seen then. “That’s the real test”, Hayes concluded.

At press time, BTC was recording a small loss of 1,1% over the last 24 hours. The price stood at $16,973.

Bitcoin BTC USD 2022-12-12
BTC price, 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

Read more

His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

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