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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Bitcoin Begins Bounce From 7-Year Bull Trend Line — Is This The Bottom?

Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino
1 year ago
3 mins read
bitcoin bull trend line

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Bitcoin price is now above $40,000, up more than 20% from the lows set in late January. Despite the recovery, common sentiment across the crypto community, analysts, and more is that the bottom is nowhere near in. 

Meanwhile, BTCUSD has began its recent bounce from a seven year secular bull trend line. Could that fact combined how few are expecting a bottom be the best case for why one might already be in?

Contrarian Take: Crypto Market Sentiment Would Be Blind To A Bottom

In a flash, Bitcoin has risen back above $40,000 – still a far cry below the $100,000 end of year 2021 targets the crypto community, analysts, mathematical models, and more had been projecting. 

The current collective expectation from that very same crowd is that the current rally is nothing more than a “bull trap” and a revisit to $30,000 and even lower is all but guaranteed. 

Related Reading | Bitcoin Death Cross 2022: What You Need To Know About The Deadly Signal

Often when the consensus expects one direction, the market moves in a contrarian manner. With market participants sold on the idea that a downtrend will continue, the current bounce could end up leaving many behind. 

Especially when the bounce itself began at a seven year secular bull trend line – and a trend line that put in two bear market bottoms. 

BLX_2022-02-05_08-33-36

A look at the seven year secular bull trend line | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The Bitcoin Trend Line That Just Won’t Stay Broken

The chart above shows what the nearly decade-long trend line looks like. The trend line first began at the 2014-2015 bear market bottom, and was lost only temporarily during that time period. After grinding along it for almost two entire years, Bitcoin price went parabolic and rose from around $2,500 to $20,000 in a matter of months.

The top cryptocurrency by market cap spent the entire bear market above the trend line, only touching back down on it in December 2018 to put in the most recent bear market bottom. Much like the 2014-2015 bear market, the line was briefly lost again during the current cycle during the Black Thursday market collapse.

Reclaiming the trend line is what caused fireworks in late 2020 and early 2021, and Bitcoin has been ranging since. Only now after an unexpected downtrend back to low $30,000s has the cryptocurrency touched the trend line in question since late 2020.

Related Reading | 2022: The Year The Secular Bitcoin Bull Run Could End

A bounce is beginning, but very few expect this to be the bottom. But why not? Bitcoin has bottomed more times at this trend line than any other. Back in December 2018, the common theory was that the downtrend would continue and few expected the bottom to be put in when it was.

In hindsight, that was indeed the bottom of the last bear market. Could this bottom be another example of one that’s only realized long in hindsight?

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com
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Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

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Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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