Comparing Past Crypto Cycles Suggests Bitcoin Nowhere Near Top

Keshav Verma

1 year ago

3 mins read

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Comparing past crypto cycles shows there is a clear pattern, and Bitcoin seems to be nowhere near the top right now.

Bitcoin researcher Dor Shaher has pointed out on Twitter that there is consistency in the way correction periods have played out in previous cycles.

Bitcoin Price Growth Since Cycle Low

Here is a chart from _checkonchain that will make it easier to understand how the pattern in the BTC cycles appears:

BTC price growth since low

Upon closer inspection, it becomes clear that each cycle had a correction period around the middle.

The first cycle is the 2011 one. Here is how Bitcoin’s price changed during it:

2011 correction

The marked area in the chart is the correction period where the price shows a clear downwards trend. It lasted 51 days.

The next correction occurred in 2013 as shown in the below chart.

2013 correction

This one wasn’t as smooth as the previous one; it had many dips and rises. It disappeared after 88 days.

2017 is the next relevant year, but it’s unlike the others.

2017 looks different than all others

As you can see in the chart, rather than a specific period of decline, Bitcoin had sporadic downs of around 30-40% in 2013. They lasted 90 days in total.

Finally, there is the cycle we are in right now.

The current cycle

Comparing this to the previous years, it’s possible that the recent crash is the mid-cycle correction. So far, it has lasted 70 days.

When Will The Correction Period End?

It’s hard to say when the Bitcoin price will start rising again, but guesses can be made if the mid-cycle theory stands correct.

The 2010-11 epoch peaked in 325 days, while the 2011-2015 did in 747 days. 2015-2018 took further long with 1067 days.

From this, it looks like each cycle is longer than the last. The reason behind that is probably BTC maturing as an asset.

If the pattern follows, the current cycle should be longer than 1067 days. So, at 921 days so far, it should go on for at least 148 days before peaking.

Also, each correction period has also been longer than the last. It’s possible this one will be at least 90 days long, which would mean a few more weeks of downwards trajectory.

Right now, Bitcoin seems to be around $32k. While it’s down 11% in the last 7 days, it seems some whales have started accumulating, which could be a positive sign.

BTC seems to be going down | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Could the current downtrend be the mid-cycle correction? Possibly, but nothing can be said about its certainty.

If it’s indeed the mid-cycle correction, and the pattern holds, then Bitcoin is nowhere near the top right now.

Featured image from Unsplash, charts from _checkonchain

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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