A Never Wrong Bearish Bitcoin Signal Just Triggered

Keshav Verma

1 year ago

3 mins read

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Bitcoin is likely to enter a bearish market as a never-before wrong signal just got triggered.

Bitcoin Headed Towards Bear Market?

As pointed out by a pseudonymous trader on Twitter, there is a certain signal that has consistently been right in the previous BTC cycles.

The signal in question is the Super Guppy indicator, a method that is based on exponential moving averages. Simply put, the technique is used to capture the difference between the price and value of Bitcoin.

Using Super Guppy, it becomes possible to tell whether the market is bearish or bullish.

Let’s take a look at the previous Bitcoin cycles. Starting with the 2011 run, here is how the Super Guppy chart looked like:

The 2011 BraveNewCoin Liquid Index For Bitcoin

Note that when the market becomes bullish, Super Guppy turns green. Similarly, for a bearish one, the indicator turns red.

As you can see in the above chart, Super Guppy was right about the Bitcoin market during the period.

Next, here is how the 2014 run looked like:

The 2014 run forms two peaks before going all the way down

Similar to the 2011 run, the 2014 cycle was also predicted accurately by Super Guppy. Here, another bullish reversal happened in the middle of the cycle, which the technique was also right about.

Finally, to add to the credibility of the method, here is the 2018 cycle:

Super Guppy indicated correctly about the market during this cycle as well.

A common misconception regarding the method of moving averages is that it is a lagging indicator, and it only notes the past trend. However, that is untrue; Super Guppy is rather a warning for the upcoming market trend.

Is It Truly A Bearish Market?

Now that it seems like the Supper Guppy indicator does seem to hold some weight given past cycles, here is how the 2020 BTC cycle looks like at the moment:

The current cycle

As Super Guppy has turned red now, and given the pattern of the other curves, it seems like the cycle is entering into a bearish trend.

However, it doesn’t mean BTC is going to hit rock-bottom. It’s possible the bear market is only short-term, and soon the indicator might turn green again.

Also, some other signals show that Bitcoin hasn’t reached its peak yet, which means the cycle might indeed see another bullish reversal.

At the time of writing, BTC is priced around $36k, up 14% in the past 7 days.

Bitcoin seems to regain an upwards trend | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Some other signals also show that whales have started accumulating, which is another positive sign for the market.

Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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