When Will Crypto Winter Thaw Out? Total Crypto Market Cap (TOTAL) September 20, 2022

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Last Updated: June 11, 2024 1:45 pm

4 mins read

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In this episode of NewsBTC’s daily technical analysis videos, we examine the total cryptocurrency market cap (TOTAL) following Ethereum Merge-related disappointments and sideways Bitcoin price action, and attempt to understand how long crypto winter might last.

Take a look at the video below:

When Will The Cryptocurrency Market Bottom And What Next?

Sentiment, price action, and technical indicators all are behaving similarly to the 2018 bear market bottom. If no new lows are made, taking a bars pattern fractal from the bear market bottom and fitting it over the current price action could give some clues into what to expect.

Fitting the fractal perfectly involves increasing its size slightly, which results in a higher high if the similarities were to continue. The higher high would also occur at around the same trend line where the last double top formed.

Connecting resistance levels and support levels could create the structure of a rising wedge or in Elliott Wave terms, an ending diagonal. Ending diagonals form when an asset’s price has climbed far too much too fast.

https://twitter.com/tonyspilotroBTC/status/1571961124219650055

The fractal would provide the final wave 5 before a larger bear market in crypto. In Elliott Wave Theory, wave 5 can often match the magnitude of wave 1, which makes price and technicals behaving similarly as wave 1 that much more notable here.

Although wave 3 is typically the longest in Elliott Wave Theory, there is evidence that in commodities, wave 5 is the strongest due to supply and demand. In the past, cryptocurrencies have shown impressive performance during a wave 5.

TOTAL_2022-09-20_16-17-43

Could a wave 5 in crypto still be left in the bull market? | Source: TOTAL on TradingView.com

Total Market Cap More Bullish Than Bitcoin

On weekly timeframes, the Total Crypto Market Cap is much more bullish than Bitcoin, having crossed bullish on the LMACD long ago, while Bitcoin waits for the signal to confirm with a weekly close.

The Relative Strength Index also reached oversold conditions, which in the past has been enough to put in a bottom in crypto. Unlike BTC, the Total Crypto Market cap is clinging onto the 200-week Moving average, which in the past has also signaled the end of crypto winter.

Several signals from the last crypto winter have appeared | Source: TOTAL on TradingView.com

Why Crypto Winter Could Last Another Several Months

Flipping to monthly timeframes, also shows that the 50-month moving average is also doing its best to keep crypto afloat.

Although daily and weekly timeframes show several key similarities with the 2018 bear market bottom, the monthly timeframe’s current candlestick structure better resembles the 2014 bear market bottom, which when compared, could suggest that the crypto winter has several more months to go before prices begin to thaw out.

TOTAL_2022-09-20_16-24-19

How much longer will crypto winter last? | Source: TOTAL on TradingView.com

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Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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