Here’s The Line Separating Bitcoin Dominance From Altcoin Season

Tony "The Bull" Severino

1 year ago

3 mins read

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For months, Bitcoin stole the show when it came to crypto, sucking the capital out of the altcoin market. Shortly after the top cryptocurrency started its pullback, profits began to flow back into altcoins that have since been soaring over the last month.

BTC dominance shows how down to the wire the fight between Bitcoin and altcoins has become. Just one line is left separating a continued surge into full-blown alt season, or the top cryptocurrency approaching total dominance.

BTC Dominance Hovers At Two-Thirds Market Share

Once upon a time, there was only one: Bitcoin. From Satoshi Nakamoto’s vision of a better form of digital money came vast digital universe filled with altcoins serving a variety of purposes.

Cryptocurrencies are no longer just currencies; they are the building blocks of decentralized finance, a way to keep transactions private, and much more.

Bitcoin itself is still considered an experiment, but that stigma is disappearing by the day as institutions buy into the scarce asset as a safe haven. Altcoins, sans a few with present day utility, are still far more speculative, illiquid, volatile, and risky.

When Bitcoin and altcoins exploded into public view in 2017, the first-ever cryptocurrency’s longevity and adoption helped it weather the top crypto winter far better. From top to bottom, it fell 84%, but by comparison, altcoins dropped much further.

When this all happened, Bitcoin went from being the only kid on the block, to representing only 35% of the entire market share. But since then, altcoins have been in a downtrend against Bitcoin that is reaching a pivotal moment. And it’s all resting on just one line.

BTC.D is resting on a clearly important line | Source: CRYPTOCAP-BTC.D on TradingView.com

What Comes Next? Altcoin Season, Or Total Bitcoin Dominance?

Intraday price action matters, but the higher the timeframe, the more dominant a chart’s signals. Even BTC.D, a measure of Bitcoin’s dominance against all other altcoins, behave in this manner.

BTC.D is currently resting on almost exactly two-thirds dominance. The line on monthly timeframes highlights why the level is so important.

The zone first acted as resistance after Bitcoin topped in 2017, and again in 2019. Support couldn’t hold, but dominance broke back through, and is now retesting the clearly critical line as support once again.

If dominance holds, we could soon see a future of total Bitcoin dominance, reaching levels of 80% or more. If support can’t hold, another, more profitable altcoin season is the likely result.

Whichever direction is chosen will dramatically alter the market share of cryptocurrencies for the foreseeable future.

Featured image from Deposit Photos, Charts from TradingView.com

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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