LUNA Aftermath: Total Crypto Market More Oversold Than Black Thursday

Tony "The Bull" Severino

1 year ago

3 mins read

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Panic struck the crypto market last week when Bitcoin broke below support, stablecoins unpegged from the dollar, and LUNA dropped to zero. The bloody aftermath has left cryptocurrencies as a whole more oversold than the Black Thursday COVID collapse.

Here is a closer look at the historically oversold conditions in crypto.

Total Crypto Market More Oversold Than Black Thursday

It was a bloodbath in Bitcoin, apocalypse in altcoins. Even stablecoins pegged to the price of the almighty dollar were completely shaken. A nefarious actor or group of actors strategically attacked the dollar-peg of the UST stablecoin, causing a domino effect of algorithmically driven liquidation of reserve assets that included BTC.

Bitcoin plunged through support and many altcoins reached a total drawdown of 80 to 90% or more. LUNA, an asset tied to UST, fell all the way to zero. Billions were wiped out from the total crypto market cap. If there was ever a time to be doubtful about the future of crypto, it might be now. However, market veterans recommend when things become doubtful, you zoom out.

The weekly RSI is more oversold than on Black Thursday | Source: CRYPTOCAP-TOTAL on TradingView.com

“When in doubt, zoom out,” holds true in this case. Comparing the recent crypto selloff with Black Thursday, the weekly RSI has reached even more extreme oversold levels. Meanwhile, the Black Thursday candle recorded a 50% drawdown, and the latest correction by contrast barely produced 30%.

By definition, a hidden bullish divergence occurs when an asset’s price sets a higher low, yet the indicator sets a lower low. This often indicates continuation ahead.

Elliott Wave Theory suggest the cycle isn't complete  | Source: CRYPTOCAP-TOTAL on TradingView.com

Could Another 45% Collapse Still Be Ahead?

Elliott Wave Theory could provide clues as to what continuation might look like ahead. The total crypto market cap is also trading within a parallel channel, of which it just touched the bottom of. The upper boundary of the channel is roughly $10 trillion USD.

While that fact might be the hope bulls need right now, bears still could have the last laugh. The weekly RSI has now reached the lowest level since the bear market bottom and the fourth lowest in its history on TradingView.

Only three other times has the total crypto market cap been more oversold  | Source: CRYPTOCAP-TOTAL on TradingView.com

Of the three previous lows set on the weekly RSI, two were bear market bottoms. The remaining low, however, was followed by another 45% plunge to the final bottom. Another 45% drop from here would take the total crypto market cap back to around $600 billion, or below the January 2018 cycle peak.

Simply put, risk is still extremely high, but as oversold conditions increase, so does the potential for reward. Act accordingly.

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

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Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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