This Expanding Triangle Pattern Could Be The Last Hope For Bitcoin Bulls

Tony "The Bull" Severino

1 year ago

4 mins read

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Bitcoin broke through support and plunged to the lowest prices seen since 2020. However, despite all the fear the drop has caused, it could be the last low before the top cryptocurrency continues its bull run.

Here is why an extremely rare Elliott Wave expanding triangle pattern could be the last hope Bitcoin bulls have for new highs before a bear market.

Ralph Nelson Elliott And His Theory On How Markets Move

Ask most crypto investors and they would probably agree: we are in a bear market. However, based on the guidelines of Elliott Wave Theory, the last year and a half of mostly sideways could be part of one powerful, confusing, and rare corrective pattern.

Elliott Wave Principle was first discovered by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s. The theory believes all markets move in the direction of the primary trend in the same five-wave pattern. Odd-numbered waves move up with the primary trend as well, while even-numbered waves are corrective in nature that move against the trend.

Is Bitcoin trading in an expanding triangle? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

In the chart above, BTCUSD could potentially be trading in an expanding triangle. In Elliott Wave Theory, triangles of any kind only appear immediately preceding the final move of a sequence. During the bear market, a triangle appeared in place of the B wave before breaking down to the bear market bottom.

Identifying A Bullish Expanding Triangle Pattern

Triangles can contract, expand, descend, ascend, and even take on some “irregular” shapes. The expanding triangle pictured above and below should in theory only occur before the final wave five impulse up. If that’s the case, the bull run could continue once the bottom of the E wave is put in.

Each subwave is a Zig-zag similar to wave two  | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

An expanding triangle is characterized as having five waves that sub-divide into ABCDE corrections. Waves A, C, and E are against the primary trend, while B and D waves are with the primary trend. Each sub-wave further sub-divides into three-wave patterns called a Zig-zag. Zig-zag patterns are sharper, and more commonly appear in wave two corrections.

The fact that an expanding triangle has five of these brutal corrections in two different directions makes it especially confusing and frustrating. Expanding triangles only form under the most unusual market conditions.

Extreme uncertainty drives expansive volatility in both directions. Both sides of the trade are repeatedly stopped out of trades, adding to frustration. By the end of the pattern, order books are thin and easily overpowered. Decidedly bearish sentiment squeezes prices up quickly causing an upward breakout of the pattern and continuation of the bull run. The chase and FOMO creates the conditions necessary for wave five.

Why Bitcoin Could Still Have Wave Five Ahead

The only problem is that there is no telling if this is the correct pattern, or if Bitcoin is in (or possibly just completed) a wave four according to Elliott Wave Theory. Knowing that triangles only appear before the final move of a sequence helps improve the changes of this expanding triangle being valid. However, it is more important to understand the characteristics of each wave.

Corrective waves result in ABC or ABCDE corrections (along with some more complex corrections) that move against the primary trend. Between corrections is an impulse wave up, in a five-wave stair-stepping pattern. After the bear market bottom, a new trend emerges starting with wave one. Wave two is often a sharp, Zig-zag style correction that retraces most of wave one.

A bear market will move below the zero line on the MACD  | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The lack of a new low creates the confidence for more market participants to join, making wave three the most powerful and extended of all. Wave four typically moves sideways and lacks the same severity of the wave two correction. Elliott said that wave four represents hesitancy in the market before finishing the trend. Both wave two and wave four tend to bring the MACD back down to the zero line before reversing higher – a setup clearly depicted above.

When the hesitancy ends, wave five typically matches the length and magnitude of wave one. But after such a long and nasty wave four correction, any wave five has the potential to extend similar to wave three. If this were the case, the expanding triangle pattern created the perfect shakeout of both sides of the market.

Here is a 🧵 on my full Elliott Wave analysis on #Bitcoin and why I don’t believe there is a bear market – and why I expect the last leg up any day now.

— Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT (@tonythebullBTC) May 15, 2022

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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