Past Performance Shows Bitcoin Historic High Could Serve As True Bear Market Bottom

Tony "The Bull" Severino

5 years ago

3 mins read

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History often repeats, and financial markets like Bitcoin and crypto regularly cycle. But past performance doesn’t always guarantee future results.

However, according to past Bitcoin price cycles, the crypto asset may require a visit to a price level referred to as the golden pocket – which also just so happens to be the crypto asset’s former all-time high – before the leading cryptocurrency by market cap has reached a final bear market bottom.

Bitcoin Bottom Resides At Former All-Time High, According to Past Performance

Markets are cyclical, and as the saying goes, history often repeats itself. If history repeats itself for Bitcoin relative to the crypto asset’s bull and bear cycles, $3,100 would have merely acted as a “false bottom” where the 2019 parabolic rally occurred from, and not the final stop before Bitcoin’s bear market is truly over.

It’s all according to math, says one crypto analyst. In past Bitcoin market cycles, the leading crypto asset by market cap once its parabolic advance was broken and its bull market peaked, the cryptocurrency would fall all the way back down to a Fibonacci retracement level of 0.618 and 0.65 – considered the “golden pocket.”

For all you history lovers. pic.twitter.com/8jsqFjbE8G

— A Voice of Reason in a Sea of Insanity (@sometrader78) December 23, 2019

After Bitcoin peaked in price following the 2013 bull run, the cryptocurrency fell to a “false bottom” at the fib level of 0.382 before going off on a bear market rally.

Once that rally peaked was when Bitcoin made its final descent toward its true bear market bottom located not only within that golden pocket but at a level acting as a retest of former all-time high prices as support.

At the 2013 peak, Bitcoin price reached a high of nearly $1,200, before falling back to retest the former all-time high of $180.

After the 2017 peak, Bitcoin price ultimately fell to a low of $3,100, or the 0.382 fib level. If this same fib level during this new cycle also ends up being a “false bottom,” it would suggest that now that the bear market rally has peaked and failed to set a new high, and the cryptocurrency will next fall beyond the false bottom to find the true bear market bottom.

And if past performance indicates future behavior, then the final destination for Bitcoin may be the asset’s former all-time high, located within that important golden fib pocket, roughly around $1,000 to $1,2000.

Such a drop would likely shock the cryptocurrency industry, and cause many projects to go bankrupt as a result. But just like the dot com crash, some analysts believe this is needed first before the crypto industry can once again grow, and eventually produce the Amazon’s and Facebook’s of the blockchain revolution.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.