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Breaking News: Bitcoin Price Slips Below $108,000: Peter Schiff Anticipates ‘Brutal’ Bear Market, CZ Responds
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Breaking News: Bitcoin Price Slips Below $108,000: Peter Schiff Anticipates ‘Brutal’ Bear Market, CZ Responds

Two Paths Of A Bitcoin Bull Run, And If A Bear Phase Is Next

Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino
1 year ago
3 mins read

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Bitcoin price has plummeted more than 50% from recent highs, falling to as low as $30,000 in a matter of a flash. The selloff was enough to shock the entire market, causing the most liquidations and coins to be deposited since Black Thursday.

There’s now talk of the bull run being over, however, there’s potentially two different paths that the cryptocurrency could take according to the RSI and past bull market performance.

Is The Top Of The Crypto Bull Run In?

After more than one full year of an uptrend, the volatile crypto market wiped out months of progress in days. The sharp reversal caused a 50% drop across the board, and it was enough to spook the market.

Related Reading | Bear Phase Fractal Warns Of Pain, Bitcoin Bull Market To Remain Unbroken

Several top signals also appeared, such as the Pi Cycle Top indicator, and the Relative Strength Index reaching overbought levels on the monthly. The monthly RSI, however, has been swatted down by bears and back into the normal range of the oscillator.

bitcoin bull market A B C

The monthly RSI is looking especially bearish | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

There is also a bearish divergence stretching across past bull cycle tops, which could provide clues as to what’s to come.

If bears can close the monthly Relative Strength Index back below overbought levels, then the bull market could be over according to scenario B from 2017. Scenario A, however, shows bull holding the key level, and making another drastic push higher to finish the bull market.

Stormy Bitcoin Forecast Could Lead To Unexpected Scenario

In scenario A, the stock-to-flow model should be proven accurate, and the leading cryptocurrency by market cap will head towards hundreds of thousands of dollars per coin.

But what if the stock-to-flow model, and every major analyst that’s glanced at a Bitcoin chart is dead wrong about expectations, or something catastrophic happens?  It sounds unrealistic, but nothing is guaranteed in markets – not even the success of Bitcoin.

Droves of analysts have produced charts that demonstrate what that path to hundreds of thousands looks like, but what might a devastating collapse look like instead?

bitcoin ichimoku disaster

Beware of a weak spot in the Ichimoku cloud | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

If a bear market takes place now and with the stock-to-flow model causing expectations to be so high, the short investment horizon of impatient investors could lead to a sharper selloff if BTC isn’t trading at hundreds of thousands before the year’s end.

A bull market failure and failure to produce the results investors are expecting, could cause investors to abandoned the cryptocurrency completely. Unless they’re in it for the tech. Forewarning of such an event, is a weak spot in the monthly Ichimoku cloud.

Related Reading | Lack Of “Capitulation” Volume Suggests Bitcoin Is Doomed To More Downside

The monthly price chart in Bitcoin also is forming a massive bearish wedge taking place across nearly a decade. A breakdown could set the trajectory for passing through the Kumo twist, which is a common setup according to how the indicator itself works.

And while anyone even remotely bullish on Bitcoin would immediately write this off, there’s no denying the cloud twist is there. Bulls also didn’t see the recent crash coming – could they also be blind to this possibility?

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com
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Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Read more

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

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