Bitcoin Dominance Is Days Away From Triggering A 30% Rally Against Alts

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Last Updated: June 11, 2024 2:07 pm

3 mins read

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Bitcoin smashing through $12,000 gave the cryptocurrency enough momentum and energy to take out $13,000 and revisit last year’s highs. But while it did so, it caused altcoins like Ethereum, Chainlink, and dozens more to bleed out relative to BTC.

It has left alts in a precarious position, potentially about to be left for dead by Bitcoin dominance and a possible 30% rally from here.

Remember The Once In A Lifetime Altcoin Season And Bitcoin’s All-Time High

Bitcoin first arrived after the Great Recession of 2008. Within a few years, the underlying technology itself took new life in the form of altcoins, many designed to improve upon the original cryptocurrency in some way.

Ethereum added smart contracts, while Litecoin sought to improve speed and loosen up the tight supply slightly. Others were created to solve scalability.

No altcoins have been able to beat Bitcoin at its own game, but the allure of the next big thing in crypto caused a frenzy of FOMO after Bitcoin exploded to $20,000. The hyper-growth across the crypto industry in both capital and in total coins created, caused BTC dominance, a metric measuring the top crypto asset’s weight against the rest of the total crypto market cap, to dive.

A metric that previously never broke below 95%, within a year or two fell to 35% dominance. Ethereum gobbled up a significant chunk, along with XRP, and other top ten assets.

Dominance could close above the middle-BB on two-week timeframes | Source: BTC.D on TradingView.com

BTC Dominance Poised To Wipe Out Alt Rally, Start Slate Clean In 2022

Nearly four years later, and now Bitcoin is on its way back up toward the highs it broke down from, and it could all happen with a two-week timeframe close above the middle-Bollinger Band.

A close above the moving average from which the two standard deviations are derived is a long or short signal. Note that the two previous closes above the middle-BB resulted in an over 30% climb each time. Closing below the middle-BB is what sent BTC.D off the deep end and kicked off the first-ever altcoin season.

TA roadmap shows path to peak in dominance before altcoin season returns | Source: BTC.D on TradingView.com

An inverse head and shoulders bottom on BTC.D peaked as the crypto bubble popped, and a breakout of the neckline took Bitcoin to the 2019 top where altcoins were decimated in its wake.

Another 30% rally from the middle Bollinger Band that could result from a two-week close above the key level, would take BTC dominance to as high as 85%, coinciding with technical analysis resistance and support levels, as well as retesting a rising wedge pattern and forming the head on yet another reversal pattern.

Combining TA with the technical indicator paints a bearish picture for altcoins | Source: BTC.D on TradingView.com

Combining the technical analysis patterns with the indicator shows how the price action between Bitcoin and altcoins could play out over the next year.

Bitcoin’s new bull run beginning and new all-time highs could cause alts to tank as analysts are expecting, but when it finally turns around in late 2022, another epic altcoin season will be due.

Featured image from Deposit Photos, Charts from TradingView.com

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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