Top Bitcoin Quant Analyst Says Fresh USD Is Needed For New Highs

Tony "The Bull" Severino

4 years ago

3 mins read

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Bitcoin price is still plummeting from a rejection at new highs set this weekend, and struggling to maintain support at former resistance levels. On the way down, the buying pressure has been far less than it was on the way up, which has one top cryptocurrency quant analyst warning that fresh USD capital is necessary for new highs.

Here’s what it might take for the leading cryptocurrency by market cap to make a full recovery and move beyond $60,000, according to key fundamental factors.

Fresh USD Inflows To Spot Exchanges Necessary For Further Bull Market Momentum

Bitcoin has been in an ongoing uptrend ever since Black Thursday of last year, when markets crashed globally due to the onset of the pandemic.

During the last year, months at a time were spent with the most dominant spot exchange in the United States, Coinbase, had a substantial price premium over other stablecoin-denominated exchanges.

Cryptocurrency exchanges like Coinbase offer investors a direct fiat on-ramp into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and dozens of altcoins. When cash is pouring into the crypto asset class, the premium appears. When cash is bleeding back out, the premium diminishes, and can even tip in favor of stablecoin trading pairs.

I think $BTC would take some time to get another leg up in terms of demand/supply.

1/ Too many $BTC holdings in USD compare to stablecoin holdings on spot exchanges.

2/ BTC market cap is too big to get another leg up by leveraging stablecoin market cap solely. pic.twitter.com/daXPaKU3U1

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) March 17, 2021

According to Crypto Quant CEO and fundamental analyst Ki Young Ju, spot inflows will need to return bringing a fresh supply of USD into the market before new highs are set. For now, there’s simply not enough stablecoin inflows to sustain the current Bitcoin market cap, and a “reset” could be coming.

Fundamentals Suggest Bitcoin FOMO Is Waning, What It Might Take For New Highs

Fundamentals point to lower spot inflows at Coinbase, even despite thousands of coins leaving the platform each week.

Until more money comes flowing in, the leading cryptocurrency by market cap is at risk of losing an important uptrend line, pictured below.

Unless significant spot inflows come in, Bitcoin could lose this trendline | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Losing the trendline would send Bitcoin back to prices around $46,000 where a retest of former support turned resistance would occur. The deeper selloff could bring into question if a double top will form, with a downside target of around $32,000 based on the measure rule.

The full correction – if it stops there – would be nearly a full 50% correction in price. At some point along the way, the price per BTC should become attractive enough for spot inflows to return. The only questions that remain, are when that happens and at what price.

Any deeper and the leading cryptocurrency by market cap could be in for another bear market and a full 80% retracement from highs.

Featured image from Deposit Photos, Charts from TradingView.com

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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