Bitcoin Loses Crucial Support Never Broken During Last Bull Run

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Last Updated: June 11, 2024 1:55 pm

3 mins read

bitcoin altcoins technical analysis prediction price crystal ball

Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed

The highest standards in reporting and publishing

How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

With Bitcoin price falling to the low $40,000 range, debate has picked up on if the once trending cryptocurrency’s bull run is now over. There’s no truly telling for sure, however, this time is very different than the last bull market.

Why? Because Bitcoin price just lost a key level that never once saw a weekly close below during the last market cycle. Could this be it for the bullish impulse – long before predictions of $100,000 or more per coin are ever reached?

Crypto Cycle Could Conclude With Key Level Lost From Past Trends

Cryptocurrencies are a highly speculative asset class, regardless if adoption is picking up or not. Sure PayPal is now game, as is Visa and an assortment of others, but the volatile assets have a long road of price discovery ahead.

Although most recent crypto participants only have known “always up” as the direction of the trend, things have recently taken a turn downward.

BTC has lost the middle Bollinger Band or 20-week SMA  | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

But is this “the top?” It’s hard to say. One thing for certain, however, is that Bitcoin price has now lost the middle Bollinger Band – also the 20-week SMA.

Passing through the mid-BB in and of itself can be a powerful buy or sell signal.

However, the fact that during the last bull run Bitcoin weekly never closed below it, it could be a sign that the structure of the bull market has been broken.

Never once was there a meaningful weekly close below the mid-BB  | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Will Bitcoin Price Snap Back Into A Bull Phase? What To Look For

The Bollinger Bands are a tool created by legendary trader John Bollinger. The tool has a variety of uses, namely measuring the volatility in the price action of assets like Bitcoin.

The technical analysis indicator consists of a 20-session SMA as mentioned, and two standard deviations of that moving average that widen and contract based on volatility.

When they tighten or “squeeze” it can be a sign a massive move is coming. These large moves can begin or continue a trend after a long pause.

The recent peak has more similarities with 2018 and 2019 than 2017  | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Bitcoin weekly timeframes have tightened during the recent consolidation phase, and a breakout has started. However, the direction appears to be down according to the middle-Bollinger Band. Passing through the middle-band typically results in several touches of the bottom band to find support.

Like last major “tops” the bottom bands widened to extremes, but when they began to tighten back up, the trend was over. A rounding of the top bands also is a sign of the tools suggesting a break in the bull run.

Related Reading | All About The Bollinger Bands

As for when Bitcoin is ready to turn bullish again, it could be worth waiting for the cryptocurrency to reclaim the middle-BB, which outside of Black Thursday and now, have always been a sign of a bull rally in the making.

With Bitcoin now below the key level, the case for a bear phase, however, is now just as strong.

Featured image from iStockPhotos, Charts from TradingView.com

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.