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GMI Model Estimates Bitcoin Fair Value At $300K By October 2021

Tony Spilotro by Tony Spilotro
2 years ago
in BTC
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Bitcoin price has held on tightly to support at $30,000, and according to Raoul Pal’s Global Macro Investor Report, the leading cryptocurrency by market cap could 10x from there by October 2021.

GMI’s model uses Metcalfe Value to make the prediction, and currently suggests the cryptocurrency is severally undervalued. Could that lofty target be only nine months away? Here’s what past market cycles say about the estimate.

Raoul Pal’s GMI Report Calls For $300K BTC Before The End of 2021

Raoul Pal has decades of global macro investing experience. He’s regularly been outspoke about Bitcoin and its long term value proposition. The GMI founder was particularly vocal about the cryptocurrency prior to the breakout in Q4 2020.

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Valuations have only increased from there, and significantly so. However, according to a recent model from a GMI Report focusing on Metcalfe Value, things are only warming up.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Trend Strength Suggests No End In Sight, Second Most Powerful Historically

The chart includes the GMI Model Metcalfe Value and its proximity to Bitcoin price. The “value” has acted as a sort of middle-point for the cryptocurrency’s valuation.

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gmi bitcoin

A chart created by Global Macro Investor shows the path to $300K per BTC | Source: GMI Report

Currently, Bitcoin is tracing significantly below its Metcalfe Value, according to the report. Past instances of Bitcoin bull markets have always risen beyond the Metcalfe Value, but simply catching up in this case would take the cryptocurrency to a $300,000 per BTC by October 2021.

Trajectory Matches Target, But Metcalfe’s Value Could Suggest More Is Possible

The project does indeed line up with predictions from other analysts, firms, and more. Even taking the exact trajectory of the last cycle, and super imposing it over the current cycle would indicate a peak of around $325,000 per BTC.

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Related Reading | Robinhood Reminder: Not Your Keys, Not Your Bitcoin

However, if the Metcalfe Value truly is accurate, and the cryptocurrency is this accurate, $300,000 as the ceiling is an extremely cautious estimate. Again, past instances of the bull market peaks have always risen beyond  the Metcalfe Value according to the GMI Report chart.

bitcoin gmi

The trajectory from the last cycle matches GMI's estimate | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Prices around where previous peaks reached beyond the value, would put the price of each Bitcoin somewhere near $1 million apiece.

If that’s the case, buying at any point over the next nine months could be the greatest opportunity of our lifetimes. However, other attempts to assign a fair market value to the crypto asset using Metcalfe’s Law, have much lower estimates.

Featured image from Deposit Photos, Charts from TradingView.com
Tags: bitcoinbtcbtcusdBTCUSDTcryptoxbtxbtusd
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Tony Spilotro

Tony Spilotro

I'm Tony Spilotro. Behind the pseudonym, I'm a global remote work leader with a decade of award-winning content experience and excellence. Here, I explore my newfound passions pertaining to privacy, finance, economics, politics, cryptography, property rights, and other libertarian-esque views. I am a Bitcoin evangelist, maximalist, and educator whenever I can be, helping to spread its message of freedom from government control, monetary policy mismanagement, and passing the buck - literally – to future generations. My journey from a curious retail crypto investor to a serious Bitcoin advocate, trader, and technical analyst is an unusual one, but life-changing nonetheless and has become less about money and more about a long-overdue revolution. While a firm believer in the laws governing math and science, I am profoundly fascinated by the impact of astrology and astronomy including moon and solar cycles and planetary alignment and their ability to influence and potentially predict markets. It hasn't yet clicked for me as to how to put anything to use, but I consider it my current rabbit hole I can't yet dig out of. My perspective of growing up alongside the internet, the dot com era, the Great Recession, and roots in video games collecting coins and rare items caused Bitcoin to immediately make sense to me. Through all of these lenses, I seek to produce content that is educational and entertaining, and I thank you sincerely for taking the time to read what I have to say. Please follow me on Twitter at @tonyspilotroBTC and feel free to drop me a line if you would like to work together.

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