Since early-2018’s market crash, crypto investors have been waiting for altcoins, digital assets that are not Bitcoin (BTC), to surge higher. Unfortunately for these investors, this hasn’t happened yet, with Bitcoin’s dominance rallied from 33% to a high of 71% last year in 18 months’ time, surging on the deaths of altcoin projects.
But, it appears that a new altcoin season, best known as an “altseason” within the cryptocurrency trading community, is right on the horizon.
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Crypto Assets May Soon Surge
Over the past few weeks, an interesting trend has developed in the cryptocurrency market: as Bitcoin has rallied by over 30% from the local bottom of $6,800, altcoins have outpaced the market leader, with some crypto assets gaining over 100% in the same time BTC surged to $9,000.
For instance, Bitcoin Satoshi Vision, on the back of news that self-proclaimed creator of the leading cryptocurrency Craig S. Wright may have access to a large stash of BTC, surged almost 300% higher in a week.
As a result of all this, BTC dominance — the percentage of the cryptocurrency market’s aggregate value made up by the leader — has fallen by 2% to 3% in a short period of time.
But according to Michael Van De Poppe, a trader at the Amsterdam Stock Exchange and noted crypto analyst, altcoins will surge dozens of percent higher if this one key thing happens:
Per his historical analysis of the BTC dominance metric, if this figure manages to fall below 67%, which is possible due to the recent price action and a bearish divergence, there will be dominance collapse to 7%.
Dominance chart. Lower high again made here, probably initiating a top after a bearish divergence already.
Breakdown below 67% and 60% is next target -> initiate altcoin movements.
Similar to January '16, in which the overall rally of $BTC dominance ended. pic.twitter.com/6DW0WwSMJv
— Crypto Michaël (@CryptoMichNL) January 16, 2020
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Bearish Long-Term Outlook for Alts; Bullish Long-Term Outlook for Bitcoin
Although altcoins may soon see some love in the short term as aforementioned, the long-term outlook for this class of crypto assets seems to be decisively bearish.
Per previous reports from this very outlet, a Reddit user found that by diversifying a $1,000 portfolio into the top 10 crypto assets (Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, etc.) at 10% for each coin, his portfolio gained 1.7% in an entire year.
During that same time span, Bitcoin gained 95% in and of itself and traditional asset classes gained dozens of percent and saw near-record gains. The idea here: in the long run, should history repeat itself, BTC is the best long-term crypto-related investment.
Not to mention, analyst Ceteris Paribus recently noted that the launch of the CME’s Bitcoin options could be bearish for altcoins: “If it isn’t obvious, the more we see products like this get offered the more bearish it is for the majority of alts,” they wrote.
If it isn't obvious, the more we see products like this get offered the more bearish it is for the majority of alts. https://t.co/1e7xL1kZK3
— Ceteris Paribus (@ceterispar1bus) January 12, 2020
And, to put a cherry on top of the Bitcoin primacy cake, Adaptive Capital’s Willy Woo found late last year that only the top 40 crypto assets listed by volume on CoinMarketCap offer investors enough liquidity to be considered “good investments.”
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