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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Bear Market Bottom Fractal Says Bitcoin Could Soon Bump And Run

Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez
4 years ago
2 mins read
Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD

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No clear signal for Bitcoin’s price, except for uncertainty. Investors are puzzled as the first cryptocurrency by market cap follows crab-like price action. At the time of writing, BTC trades at $35,935 with sideways movement across the board.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
BTC moves sideways in the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview

The most bullish expert believes BTC could be forming a Bump and Run Reversal (BRR). In 2018 and 2019, BTC’s price formed this chart structure after major corrections and managed to reclaim the lost territory.

Anonymous analyst “Stillman” compared BTC’s price 2018 3-day chart versus its current 10-hour chart and found similarities that point to a Bump and Run reversal bottom.

BTC 2018 vs. now. (3D vs. 10h). All I am going to say is if we get this move next, don't mistake it for a bear flag. pic.twitter.com/fNLAeTn8St

— Stillman (@Stillm4n) June 5, 2021

Anonymous trader Polar Hunt concurred with the analyst’s conclusion. The trader believes that “mega drops” in BTC’s price cause apathy amongst investors. This leads to the formation of the Bump and Run Reversal.

We've played this game before. #BTC

Mega drops like we had now and back in 2018 causes apathy. pic.twitter.com/zRRrZDJbcA

— Polar Hunt (@polar_hunt) June 4, 2021

As both charts show, this chart structure is comprised of 4 phases: the lead-in phase, which could have been formed in previous months. Later, the bump phase after the price crashes and goes into accumulation.

This phase could extend for months with BTC’s price reaching higher lows in a narrow range and slowly retaking its previous highs. During this phase, the price forms a bowl-like structure as it climbs back to levels seen in the first phase.

When the price starts to leave the bowl range, the chart enters a throwback to trendline before going into an uphill run towards new highs, as seen below.

The structure is still forming and must be validated, but if it consolidates it suggests a long season of bad news for the bears.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
Source: B.Biddles (@thalamu_)

On-chain Bitcoin Activity Takes A Hit

In order for the BRR to consolidate, BTC’s price needs a boost. However, on-chain activity suggests that demand for the first cryptocurrency by market cap has dropped.

Data from Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin network activity has been on the downside. Before the crash, Bitcoin had around 1.15 million active addresses per day. This figure coincides with BTC’s price 2017 peak, and it saw an 18% reduction during last week’s sell-off.

Now, daily active addresses stand at around 0.94 million. The analyst stated:

This fall is around half the reduction seen in 2017, indicating that whilst activity has slowed, more demand exists than after previous cycle macro tops (or perhaps there is further to go…).

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
Source: Glassnode Insights

The number of entities, such as exchanges and miners, saw a similar pulled back and stand at 250,000 after dropping from 375,000.

It’s no surprise that the USD denominated transfer volume settled by Bitcoin saw a 65% declined. Checkmate concluded that the Change-adjusted transfer volume has dropped from $43 billion to $15 billion per day. The analyst added:

(…) the 2017 aftershock is the only event of comparable scale where on-chain settled volume fell by 80% over a period of around 3 months.

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Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez

Reynaldo Marquez

A literature major, Reynaldo Márquez has been deeply immersed in the crypto industry since 2017. His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide.
In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride.
He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times.
In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson’s ‘Neuromancer.’ The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau’s ‘Civil Disobedience.’
But that’s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term.
In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry.
Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. He hopes to retire with his wife, maybe in a quiet place near a beach, but most likely in a city close to a library and a university with his kids and, hopefully, grandkids.

Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
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