Bitcoin Price Forecast Calls For Chance Of Black Thursday Redux

Tony "The Bull" Severino

1 year ago

3 mins read

bitcoin price forecast black thursday candle iStock-1289975096

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Bitcoin price is making another attempt at the time of this publication to take back $50,000 and hold. With the Ichimoku indicator turned on, the leading cryptocurrency by market cap is also trying to hold above the cloud.

Losing the cloud under similar circumstances the last time around, resulted in one of the nastiest selloffs on record with Black Thursday in March 2020. Could such chaos be in the forecast for crypto?

Holding Above Cloud Could Prevent Black Thursday Repeat

Until either Bitcoin sets a lower low, or blasts cleanly above $50,000 and makes a crack at its current all-time high, debate will rage on regarding if the bull market will continue or if a bear phase has begun.

Related Reading | Total Crypto Market Cap Reenters Monthly RSI Bull Zone

Currently, there’s a battle breaking out between bulls and bears, and while at first glance it would seem $50,000 is the prize, price action is trying to hold above the Ichimoku cloud – also called the Kumo – on the three-day timeframe.

Bitcoin losing the cloud could cause a deeper correction | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

In an attempt to use the cloud from the past to forecast the future, losing the cloud on the timeframe could result in a similar style collapse as Black Thursday. A red cloud represents bearish strength in the market, so although Bitcoin is rising, bears might still have the upper hand.

A Theory On Where The Bitcoin Correction Will End

If such a fall happens, the lower low doesn’t necessarily mean a downtrend has started. The pure definition of a downtrend is a series of lower lows and lower highs, which will be what happens in Bitcoin if the top cryptocurrency reverses here.

Even Black Thursday itself was a buy signal, marking the completion of an ABC correction. According to Elliott Wave Theory, following each impulse wave, a corrective wave follows.

Another ABC correction would result in a lower low | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

In an ABC correction, the C-wave is always lower than the A-wave. Adding credence to the idea, both rallies on the way up saw similar sub-division.

There is no guarantee that a C-wave will arrive. Also, impulse waves move in the primary direction of the trend, and the current corrective wave could be a wave-four in a larger formation making any downside relatively moot.

The larger formation suggests one final wave five up before the bull market is over, and the wave five will be one to remember. When it is all said and done, if the formation is valid, Bitcoin could see its worst bear market ever to follow.

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Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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