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Efficient Market Hypothesis: MicroStrategy’s $650M Bitcoin Buy Has Barely Been Priced In

Tony Spilotro by Tony Spilotro
1 year ago
in BTC
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Bitcoin price is making an attempt to get back over $18,000 after it flirted with the mid-$17,000 range in the overnight hours. The leading cryptocurrency by market cap has only bled further over the last several days since MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor revealed his company’s plans to offer convertible senior notes to raise $650 million in proceeds to buy Bitcoin with.

Whales of such proportion and size rarely reveal their position-taking plans beforehand, making the news notable. However, the market has yet to price in such an enormous piece of information. It has one early crypto supporter to question is efficient market theory. Here’s what that means, and why the market has yet to respond to information regarding the sudden, substantial demand.

Bitcoin Price Declines As Corporate Treasury Whale Publicly Announces Increase In Position Size

The Nasdaq-listed software firm MicroStrategy set off the initial wave of corporate buying of the first-ever cryptocurrency. Jack Dorsey’s Square Inc followed suit shortly thereafter, sparking a wave of FOMO in Q4.

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The domino effect took Bitcoin from retesting $10,000 to a new all-time high in one fell swoop. The $10,000 up-move took only a handful of months, but it put the crypto asset on the radar of major players for the first time.

Related Reading | From FOMO To Overbought: Why Bitcoin Is Overdue For A Steep Correction

Since the initial shift in sentiment toward using the asset as a store of value and hedge against inflation caused the breakout bullish impulse in the first place, then why hasn’t the fact that Saylor has raised enough funds to purchase another $650 million worth of BTC barely had an impact?

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bitcoin microstrategy

Bitcoin has only dropped on the news a whale is increasing its position so sizably | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Why Isn’t The Crypto Market Pricing In New Demand Information As Supply Struggles Persist?

$650 million worth of Bitcoin at current prices represents over 36,000 BTC – a whale-sized position by crypto standards. The capital is enough to beat out any cryptocurrency’s entire market cap from rank 39 and below, to put things into perspective.

The fact that the crypto market has yet to price in such information, has Nic Carter questioning “efficient market theory.” According to Wikipedia, efficient market theory, in a nutshell, is the idea that asset prices currently reflect all available information.

But Saylor has made his intent to buy such a large sum of Bitcoin a completely public and pre-planned affair, yet the price per BTC has declined since.

Related Reading | “Most Profitable Buy Signal” Triggers As Bitcoin Consolidates Below ATH

However, there could be a few reasons for this. Despite the fact that Bitcoin has real inherent value, its price is primarily driven by speculation, and a fair market value is extremely difficult to establish.

Essentially, because the crypto investor base believes that Bitcoin will almost certainly reach prices of $100,000 or more next year and beyond, that information got priced in well ahead of Saylor’s display, resulting in the cryptocurrency’s rally becoming overheated too quickly.

FOMO caused a powerful bullish impulse because people have very little idea how to price this asset currently. Due to this, selloffs become just as severe quickly. Trends in speculative assets can overextend in both directions.

Another theory is that investors are viewing Saylor’s “all-in” type approach to Bitcoin a bit reckless considering the uncertainty that still remains surrounding the asset.

Regulation could soon become a factor, quantum computers are in development that could make the cryptography protecting Bitcoin less secure, and more. In essence, MicroStrategy itself is also speculating on Bitcoin, and speculation in the business world isn’t always the safest and most sound (micro) strategy.

Featured image from Deposit Photos, Charts from TradingView.com
Tags: bitcoinbtcbtcusdBTCUSDTcryptoxbtxbtusd
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Tony Spilotro

Tony Spilotro

I'm Tony Spilotro. Behind the pseudonym, I'm a global remote work leader with a decade of award-winning content experience and excellence. Here, I explore my newfound passions pertaining to privacy, finance, economics, politics, cryptography, property rights, and other libertarian-esque views. I am a Bitcoin evangelist, maximalist, and educator whenever I can be, helping to spread its message of freedom from government control, monetary policy mismanagement, and passing the buck - literally – to future generations. My journey from a curious retail crypto investor to a serious Bitcoin advocate, trader, and technical analyst is an unusual one, but life-changing nonetheless and has become less about money and more about a long-overdue revolution. While a firm believer in the laws governing math and science, I am profoundly fascinated by the impact of astrology and astronomy including moon and solar cycles and planetary alignment and their ability to influence and potentially predict markets. It hasn't yet clicked for me as to how to put anything to use, but I consider it my current rabbit hole I can't yet dig out of. My perspective of growing up alongside the internet, the dot com era, the Great Recession, and roots in video games collecting coins and rare items caused Bitcoin to immediately make sense to me. Through all of these lenses, I seek to produce content that is educational and entertaining, and I thank you sincerely for taking the time to read what I have to say. Please follow me on Twitter at @tonyspilotroBTC and feel free to drop me a line if you would like to work together.

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