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Breaking News: REX Shares Claims Its DOGE And XRP Spot ETFs Will Be Approved By US SEC Tomorrow
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Breaking News: REX Shares Claims Its DOGE And XRP Spot ETFs Will Be Approved By US SEC Tomorrow

When Will Bitcoin Bull Run Begin? This Could Be The Metric To Watch

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
1 year ago
3 mins read
Run Render RNDR

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A pattern in the supply of the Bitcoin long-term holders could provide some hints about when the next bull run might begin in earnest.

Bitcoin HODLer Balance Has Followed A Specific Pattern In Previous Cycles

According to the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock, the supply of the BTC HODLers is “an excellent indicator for measuring market cycles.” The “HODLers” or long-term holders (LTHs) refer to the Bitcoin investors who have held onto their coins since at least a year ago without having sold or transferred them on the blockchain.

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The LTHs are the resolute hands in the market, which rarely sell their coins even when a profitable opportunity has presented itself or a deep price crash has occurred.

One way to track the behavior of these diamond hands is through the combined amount of balance they carry in their wallets. The chart below shows this Bitcoin metric trend over the past few years.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply

The value of the metric seems to have been steadily going up in recent months | Source: IntoTheBlock on X

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin supply held by the HODLers has been showing some growth over the past couple of years, suggesting that the LTHs have been accumulating.

This rise in the indicator has also continued through the latest rally, implying that the LTHs aren’t yet ready to start taking their profits. Something to note is that when the metric goes up, it doesn’t mean buying is happening in the present.

The indicator naturally has a 1-year lag associated with it, as coins must mature for that long before they can be included in the cohort. However, this only applies to buying as the holders moving their coins to sell instantly reset the age back to zero and, hence, remove them from the group.

In the chart, the analytics firm has highlighted a pattern that the Bitcoin LTH supply has observed during the leadup to past bull runs. It would appear that the HODLers have shown accumulation in such periods.

On the other hand, the start of selling from this cohort coincided with the beginning of the bull rally in proper. So far, the HODLers have only been accumulating recently, implying that the market may be in the pre-bull run phase.

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If the historical pattern indeed holds for the current cycle as well, then the HODLer supply could be one to watch, as a significant downtrend in it could turn out to be a signal that the bull run has begun once more.

BTC Price

Bitcoin had plunged towards the $41,700 mark yesterday, but the asset has already seen some sharp recovery as its price is now trading around the $43,000 level.

Bitcoin Price Chart

Looks like BTC has jumped up during the past day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Shutterstock.com, charts from TradingView.com, IntoTheBlock.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Read more

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

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