Here’s Why Crypto Analysts Are Divided Over The Future Of Altcoins

Tony "The Bull" Severino

4 years ago

3 mins read

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Over the last few weeks, Bitcoin has been rising without pause, absorbing all of the capital out of the crypto market and causing altcoins to bleed on BTC pairs.

BTC dominance finds itself at a crucial resistance level, and some of the brightest and best crypto analysts in the community, are divided over the future of altcoins. Here’s what they are saying, and what to expect in the short-term in the always unusual relationship between Bitcoin and alts.

BTC Dominance Reaches Long-Term Resistance, Fireworks Expected To Finish

Bitcoin was the first cryptocurrency to be created, and due to this, it enjoys all the first-mover advantage benefits that come along with it. It has the widest adoption and regulatory acceptance, and the largest chunk of the cryptocurrency market share.

BTC dominance is a metric weighing the top crypto’s market cap against the entire altcoin space, and it shows that Bitcoin commands as much as 66% of the overall capital invested into the thousands of coins across the crypto market.

The TD Sequential 9 sell setup works reliably on BTC dominance | Source: CRYPTOCAP-BTC.D on TradingView.com

Some analysts swear by charting BTC dominance to discover divergences in the relationship between Bitcoin and altcoins, while others claim it is useless. However, if it isn’t valuable for technical analysis, then it is strange it responds so well to support and resistance levels and other common chart signals, as evident in the chart above.

The TD Sequential indicator also works well on BTC.D weekly timeframes, giving the value of timing BTC pairs using the metric added credence. In the past, it acted as an almost flawless sell setup, calling nearly every top in BTC dominance except one on the weekly scale.

As for last night’s candle open, an “imperfect” 9 sell setup has appeared. A rise to over 66.5% dominance before the end of the week, would cause the indicator to light up with highlighted green, pictured above in other instances where the TD Sequential triggered.

The Future Of Altcoins, And The New Bitcoin Bull Ruin

A recent analysis of the TD Sequential on BTCUSD monthly timeframes shows that although the signal is incredibly reliable when it does fail, it leads to an even larger impulse.

9 buy or sell setups are also not nearly effective when the strength of the prior trend was particularly strong – even if the setup is perfected. If the trend leading up to the sell setup was that powerful, the signal is ignored and the asset keeps on climbing.

This sort of behavior also happened on BTC dominance, depicted by the red arrow on the left below. The prior trend reversing from the crypto bubble popping, was so strong, although a perfected 8 and 9 sell setup triggered on the weekly, Bitcoin kept climbing. From the moment the 8 sell setup appeared, dominance grew 35%.

But when it fails, a larger impulse ensues - what happens this time?  | Source: CRYPTOCAP-BTC.D on TradingView.com

After a pullback, the final height of the up-move reached as high as 58%, taking BTC dominance to a peak of 73%. The number is the highest point since prior to the 2017 crypto bubble when altcoins outpaced BTC by astronomical figures.

However, just as divided as crypto analysts are on the validity of charting BTC.D, they’re mixed on where altcoins go from here. With BTC dominance at resistance, many are expecting rejection and the first true altcoin season since Bitcoin reached its all-time high.

The other side of the argument, expects altcoins to bleed out hard into one final drop against BTC until Bitcoin clears its former all-time high, tips off the mainstream public about the new bull run, and retail investors come back into the cheaper subset of coins en masse.

Featured image from Deposit Photos, Charts from TradingView.com

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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