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Breaking News: SOL Strategies: The First Solana Treasury Company Listed On Nasdaq

The Striking Similarities Between The 2017 Bitcoin Peak And Now

Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino
1 year ago
3 mins read

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Bitcoin is now trading over $7,000 below its peak reached to start the year – a peak that is more than double its previous all-time high. And while believers in the cryptocurrency are certain this is just another pullback before more price discovery, the similarities between the 2017 top and now are undeniably striking.

Here’s how the two potential tops compare, but why this time still could be very different from the last.

Bitcoin Bubble Returns, But Is It Already Ready To Pop?

Outside of the crypto Twitter echo chamber, financial analysts and economists are once again beginning to warn that Bitcoin is a bubble, potentially being inflated even more so this time around as part of the “everything bubble.”

And while crypto enthusiasts are quick to write the notions of naysayers off as just plain wrong, the current price action since $42,000 was tapped, closely resembles the 2017 peak.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Trend Strength Suggests No End In Sight, Second Most Powerful Historically

2020 propelled Bitcoin into super-stardom, and from under $4,000 to more than $40,000 at the start of 2021. The entire parabolic move was reminiscent of the 2017 hype bubble that made the cryptocurrency a household name.

But the strength of the trend isn’t the only way the two rallies size up for comparison’s sake. In fact, the current price action, indicators, and even the patterns leading up to the recent peak, almost exactly match the top of the 2017 bull run.

bitcoin 2017 2021 top

Several similarities between the 2017 peak and now exist | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Could A Repeat Of 2017 Take Place, Or Is This Time Different?

In the chart above, the similarities are immediately visible: There’s a large rise up followed by a sharp peak. However, this happens so often in Bitcoin that the peaking behavior alone isn’t enough to go on.

What is more compelling, however, is the evening star pattern culminating with a tiny red doji at the top of the run, combined with a pair of technical indicators exhibiting similar readings.

After crossing down temporarily on the MACD, the final bullish impulse lasted roughly one month before the same tool crossed into the red. Bitcoin just crossed bearishly for the first time yesterday on the MACD since $20,000 was broken.

The MACD crossover was forecasted by the hidden bullish divergence on the RSI, which also matches up – then versus now. The fakeout down also coincided with price passing through the 20-day moving average both times.

The moving average on the way back down in 2017 was the last straw before things turned extremely bearish. Bitcoin is currently on the ropes against this same moving average, potentially ready to go down for the count.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Daily MACD Flips Red For First Time Since $20K Was Taken

In less than one month from the time the top pattern formed and indicators confirmed downward momentum, Bitcoin plunged from $20,000 to $6,000. Similar targets this time around would result in a crash to $20,000 at minimum.

And while such a move might shake out investors thinking it is the top, confirming $20,000 as resistance turned support would be extremely bullish for Bitcoin and likely leave that former trading range behind forevermore

Investing legend Sir John Templeton however warns that some of the costliest words an investor can murmur are “this time is different.”

Is this time different? Or is another bear market coming? Only time will tell.

Featured image from Deposit Photos, Charts from TradingView.com
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Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Read more

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
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